I have
been feeling pretty confident about this game, but the closer we get the more
nervous I become. There are many reasons
to favor both sides, and with two defensive starters lost for the Buffs, this
game is very close. The rams may have
had an 8-4 record last year, but realize it was in the Mountain WAC conference,
and not a single win came against a team that ended the year with a winning
record. The team from up north needs to
replace both lines almost in their entirety, and are down two of the possible
replacements on the offensive side. Both
teams have been trying to increase their overall speed and size and both claim to
be pleased with progress. As is often
the case, this game will likely be close and come down to play in the trenches
where both teams are replacing a lot of guys.
§ Line: I have seen anywhere from “pick ‘em”
to CU by 4 ½ leading up to the game, but it seems to have generally settled at CU
by 3.
§ Depth Chart moves/Burn the Redshirt: Who will be the first redshirt burned this
year? There are nine true frosh listed on the depth
chart and a bunch will play Friday night. Take a look at the opening kickoff as
some are expected to at least play on special teams, including WRs Shay Fields,
Lee Walker, and Donovan Lee and possibly even Jay MacIntyre, as well as S Evan
White. DEs Christian Shaver and Michael
Mathewes will certainly see time, and at least one of DTs Eddy Lopez and Jase
Franke.
§ Injuries: S Jered Bell and DE Tyler
Henington have been lost for the season due to non-contact ACL tears. DE Markeis Reed is out a couple of more weeks
after hernia surgery. A couple of guys who don’t figure to get playing time are
also out for this first game: C Brad Cotner (concussion) and DL Garrett
Gregory.
§ The
rams have lost a couple of offensive linemen; LB Cory James and TE Kivon Cartwright
have been recovering from surgeries but are expected to play.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ Look
for the Buffs to run early and often, establishing the run and pounding on the
lamb defensive line, which will be replacing all three starters, giving the
o-line a chance to really create some holes for the three or four headed
monster that looks to be the Buffs rushing attack. Michael Adkins will likely start, Christian
Powell will get reps at TB and FB, Tony Jones will come in for a few third
downs. R-Fr. Phillip Lindsay will also be mixed in and I expect him to make
some plays (predicting that he will have a long TD run). Their jumbo goal-line package with FB George
Frazier and Powell is going to be very effective.
§ The
offensive line will be the expected (left to right) Jeromy Irwin-Kawai
Crabb-Alex Kelley-Daniel Munyer-Stephane Nembot. The right side will probably be their
favorite direction to run, but Munyer is also excellent at pulling to the left. They have better size and depth here than we
have seen since Barnett’s tenure. I
wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them play more guys here to develop that
depth, especially if they can get a good lead.
§ When
they do establish the run, it should really open up the game for QB Sefo Liufau
and his deep stable of receivers. Nelson
Spruce and DD Goodson are both going to catch a ton of balls all over, while Shay
Fields and Bryce Bobo will be used to stretch the field (Sefo worked hard on
the long ball over the summer), with Tyler McCulloch featured in five wideout
sets and the red zone for his height.
And they still have true frosh Walker, Lee and even little Jay
MacIntyre. R-Fr. Elijah Dunston looks
like the odd man out, but could sneak into the rotation with Devin Ross announcing
over Twitter that he is redshirting (it actually seems that he got leapfrogged
by the younger guys, maybe has been placed with the scout team and isn’t
expected to play much at this point, but Coach Troy Walters said a redshirt was
not necessarily the case).
§ They
will be up against a ram secondary that is similar to the Buffs, in that they
have struggled the past few years but are bringing back a lot of guys who have
played. Their confidence is boosted by
the fact that they don’t have to face Paul Richardson. The Buffs went over the top of the safeties
with P-Rich last year, but will likely employ more of a controlled shorter
passing game.
§ Coaches
have also said that they are encouraging Sefo to run more this year, both in
making the choice when to tuck the ball and go, as well as some designed plays
(at least once in the Aug. 16 scrimmage, they called a keeper for Sefo on first
down). Not only is Sefo more experienced
at reading defenses and making decisions, but he has put on some weight and
worked on his quickness to make him a better runner able to take hits. Additionally, coaches feel much more
comfortable this year with Jordan Gehke’s development as the backup, if
something were to happen to Sefo, whereas last year that was not the case.
§ Unfortunately,
I don’t think the TEs will contribute much to the passing game, but this
position could be lethal in this offense with the other talent at RB and
WR. However, Sean Irwin and Kyle Slavin
are both strong blockers. If someone
starts catching some balls, it will likely be Irwin.
When the lambikins have the ball:
§ Addison
Gilliam will lead the Buff D, which will line up in the nickel more often than
not. Soph. Ken Olugbode will flank him
and Woodson Greer will come on for running teams and situations, and I am not
sure that we will see much of the other LBs.
But the key here is going to be the defensive line rotation, especially
the ends who cannot even boast of one upperclassman. The interior is anchored
by Srs. Josh Tupou and Juda Parker, with Jr. Justin Solis, and some depth
coming from scrappy Jr. Clay Norgard, versatile So. De’Jon Wilson (will also
line up outside) and likely true frosh Eddy Lopez and/or his classmate Jase
Franke. The youthful corps of rush ends will
begin with R-Fr. Derek McCartney and So. Jimmy Gilbert, followed by R-Fr. Tim
Coleman (Markeis Reed won’t play this week), plus true frosh Christian Shaver
and Micheal Mathewes. This group has to
slow down the run game and get some pressure on the QB, or it could be a long
day.
§ Garret
Grayson is an experienced QB and was invited along with Sefo to the Manning
Passing Academy this summer, but you did not hear his name much. He has a couple of decent receivers in Joe
Hansley and Rashard Higgins, and, as they usually do in fort collins, a capable
TE or two, although no standouts.
Grayson will spread the ball around and will definitely take some deep
shots, especially with Jered Bell out, but I expect this much improved
secondary to be up to the task and come away with a couple of interceptions.
§ His
offensive line will also have four new starters trying to protect him and
create holes for whichever RB tries to replace their top three rushers, none of
whom are with the team: Chris Nwoke graduated, Donnell Alexander transferred
(smart move my man!) and Kapri Bibbs inexplicably (well, I guess he is a ram)
bolted after only his sophomore season for the NFL to become an undrafted free
agent clawing to make a practice squad with Denver. It look like the lambs will also have a running
back by committee approach, but they are not nearly as deep as the Buffs. Converted
safety Jason Oden will start but expect to see a lot ‘Bama transfer Dee Hart off
the bench. If the line and Gillam can
plug up the run game and force Grayson to be one dimensional, it will help
everyone.
§ The
CU defensive secondary is as deep as it has been in years and coaches have
already said they will rotate more players here to keep the players fresh
against the quick snaps and waves of receivers some of these spread offenses in
the Pac12 send out there. However, the
injury to Bell leaves a hole in experience and leadership. So. Chido Awuzie, who coaches want on the
field as much as possible, is going to take over that free safety spot opposite
Tedric Thompson, with Sr. Terrel Smith coming on there in the oft-used nickel
package. Marques Mosley will also play
and I expect we also see a decent amount of true frosh Evan White. Henderson and Crawley will start at the
corners, but we should also see some of Witherspoon, Yuri Wright and So. John
Walker, who is listed as the #2 nickel.
Expect a couple of big plays by this group, but I also wouldn’t be
surprised if they gave up a few as well in their first game without Bell.
Special Teams:
§ This is an area that the Buffs should dominate
with superior talent and speed as their coverage units (csu killed them here
last year) should be way better this season.
Wil Oliver will be the kicker and is still listed as #1 KO (as well as
#2 punter), but I really hope we get to see the booming leg of Diego Gonzalez. Darragh O’Neill looks very strong and I
expect a big year from him-he was hyped a lot coming into last year, but some
struggles with the rugby style kick dropped his stats and no one is talking about
him now. The Buffs do have a new long
snapper in Tucker Smith, and it sounds like he has done very well in camp
(mostly because we haven’t heard any concerns).
§ Nelson
Spruce will start out returning punts, with Greg Henderson, who had a couple of
nice returns in scrimmages, backing him up.
Phillip Lindsay will line up deep for kickoffs with Ryan Severson, with
Christian Powell and Tony Jones the other options.
§ Four
players were officially listed on the depth chart as “Select Unit Specialists
(coverage and return)”: So. RB Terrence Crowder, So. Transfer S/LB Travis
Talianko, and Sr. former walk-ons safety Richard Yates and WR Wes Christensen
(the two were awarded scholarships for their last season on Tuesday).
§ Overall, the Buffs have just a little more talent, size and speed
across the board, but the trenches will be where the game is won, with the
offensive line paving the way for the
running backs to run out the clock in the 4th quarter, Buffs 31
lambs 17.
§ If
you need a little more to make it to
Friday’s kickoff:
Stuart’s
TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2014/colorado-state-preview-3/
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu14/cunotes.pdf
csu game
notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu14/csunotes.pdf