Sunday morning stream of consciousness reaction

After yet another mind numbing heartbreaking loss the Buffs and their fan base are left yet again wondering "what if?" Although there are a lot of things to be excited about-500 yards offense including a running attack, Bryce bobo's 2 TDs, Kenneth olugbode'a best game, some huge defensive stops, wil Oliver eliminating kick return game with touchbacks-there were still way too many of the same costly mistakes at the worst times. Once again Colorado started by spotting their opponent a two touchdown lead with Ucla going up 17-0 before the buffs woke up and started to play ball. They won the middle of the game despite some really boneheaded plays, but then could not finish, even with the bruin defense exhausted in overtime they could only muster two three and out FGs and finally were overcome by Brett hundley. They found every way to make critical mistakes, especially at the beginning and end, including head scratching interceptions by sefo early and late. The only thing missing was costly drops (but sefo had many under and overthrows also). But the worst mistakes were coaching related, highlighted by the end of half debacle where they were unaware and unprepared. I can't understand how lindgren keeps calling runs straight into the line on short yardage plays. They also are scared stiff to go for it on 4th down, I guess since they are so terrible at play calling-- they punted 3 or 4 times from near midfield on 4th and 3 or less. 

  I must say that this team has heart like none I have seen and continues to persevere; I just hope they can stick with it after so many close calls and difficult losses. Washington is a winnable game, albeit at an ungodly football hour. Go Buffs!

UCLA Bruins Preview

The Buffs laid in egg in LA and sent many fans reeling back to the misery of the past few (no, can’t really say few anymore, now it is many more than that) years.  The team never showed up in any phase of the game until the outcome was no longer in doubt, that is, late in the first quarter at 28-0.  Too many bad mistakes, weak line play on both sides, sporadic tackling, blah blah blah-the same old shit we have been seeing except that this time the Trojans really made them pay.

UCLA will provide almost as stiff of a challenge.  Even though they have not been playing up to their preseason hype, they are still ranked, very talented and coming off a tight win against Cal, following two tough losses. They will be looking to get well against the Buffs and Brett Hundley is already eyeing the “Player of the Week” accolades that come with QBing against Colorado.  The Buffaloes’ only chance lies in taking advantage of Hundley’s and the Bruins’ tendency for turnovers, without making any big mistakes themselves, a tall order they have yet to fill.

§  Line: The line opened at 12.5 and as usual heavy betting on CU’s opponent sent it rising immediately to 13.5.

§  Depth Chart moves: It is doubtful any more true frosh will burn redshirts, but there has been some shuffling and MacIntyre hinted there might be more after the USC loss.

§  K Chris Graham got his first kickoff and hit it pretty well and we might see him in the future.

§  Already past the midpoint of the season and coach Clark and MacIntyre himself cannot decide on their best five.  Terrel Smith played some nickel for the first time and Akhello Witherspoon again got some playing time instead of John Walker, but the secondary still got decimated.  While the same four have started almost every game, they have moved around trying to find the best five-man combination in the nickel package, which they actually use more than their “base”.  The positive is that this group will be very experienced next season (losing Henderson, but likely getting Jered Bell back and adding redshirting big corner Jaisen Sanchez).

§  In the 4^th quarter at USC we were able to see a lot of the young guys play (as well as some older ones like RB Malcolm Creer) but nothing stood out as the scrubs ran the clock down.  Backup QB Jordan Gehrke looked okay, definitely can scramble, but it was in garbage time against backups.

§  We also got our first glimpse of heralded transfer Shane Callahan at guard, as well as Gerrald Kough and Sam Kronshrage. Will they make any moves along the line, especially with Kawai Crabb questionable with a concussion?

§  Injuries: At one point MacIntyre indicated he expected everyone to be ready to go (My first draft of this was : “The Buffs should be relatively healthy, although there always seems to be some unreported injuries as well-i.e. MacIntyre mentioning that CB John Walker had a previously unknown thigh contusion) but alas that is not the case... 

§  There are three players listed day-to-day with concussions: Crabb, CB Akhello Witherspoon and RB Christian Powell, who has had multiple incidences in his career and at one point was all but permanently shut down by Embree.

§  WR Bryce Bobo is still sore after taking that vicious hit near the sidelines last week.

§  UCLA has a lot of guys that are questionable but “doing well” according to Coach Mora, including RB Paul Perkins(right wrist), WR Thomas Duarte (hamstring), CB Fabian Moreau (stinger) and offensive tackles Simon Goines and Alex Redmond (both with ankles), but we probably won’t know until game time much like playing Kansas St in the past.

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  The Bruin defense has some of the best individual players, from CB Ishmael Adams (two interceptions for TDs), LBs Eric Kendricks and Myles Jack (is there a better duo anywhere?), and a formidable line, but they have not been able to put together a whole game as a unit. They have given up a lot more than anyone expected, but they too might be looking to get well in Boulder.

§  The CU offense had its worst outing versus the Trojans, with Sefo calling it his worst personal performance of his career.  It wasn’t pretty early in the game and all the stats came when the game was really decided, that is the last three quarters.  In order for the team to be in the game the offense has to score a lot of points and limit mistakes.

§  Part of the problem is that defenses are studying and preparing to take away Sefo’s favorite target Nelson Spruce.  He has to get others involved, preferably without telegraphing it.  As good as Sefo has been, his bad plays are really bad.  I think his decision making is getting better but he doesn’t always work through his progressions and still has the tendency to hold onto the ball too long and take a lot of hits.  I would love to see a game where he doesn’t throw that costly UGH interception.

§  RB Tony Jones had a solid day but it is a little sad that he is the emerging as the best back. They are gaining some yards but are not breaking big plays, not getting the tough yards in short situatuions.  Frankly, they just need more out of this position, and maybe using all four guys is not really letting anyone get into any kind of a rhythm. A completely healthy Michael Adkins could still be the solution but Philip Lindsay is so dynamic that if the line could just give him a few more creases to squeeze through…

§  I must say that the offensive line is improving and the statistics are starting to show it as the Buffs are setting school records passing and have only given up 12 sacks, while actually averaging 169 yards rushing per game.  However, I have not seen the hurry/pressure/hit/knockdown numbers but I assume they are much higher as Sefo has taken a lot of really big hits (though we did mention he often holds onto the ball).  Also, while they have picked up decent yardage on the ground, the team is unable to convert way too many “and 1” situations, between questionable play calling and very little push from the line, nor have they been able to take over a game for any length of time against anyone.

§  The best news though is that this group is still relatively young, getting better all the time, and (I can’t believe that I am already succumbing to talking about the future) returns most of the pieces, with obvious choices waiting in the wings to replace the few they lose.

When the Bruins have the ball:

§  Former preseason Heisman hopeful QB Brett Hundley has not looked his all-worldly self this year, but is still very dangerous, and had a phenomenal game against the Buffs last year.  His weakness is that he just doesn’t read defenses that well and tries to rely on his athleticism too much, holding onto the ball and trying to get out of too many tight spaces with his legs. 

§  I guess I can say it again, but the defensive line is so important for this Buff defense to have any success.  Even though the secondary is much improved, they can only cover for so long, and therefore have given up a ton of catches, yards and scores. The d-line needs to contain Hundley and bring him down, as the teams who have been successful against them have done.  Derek McCartney and Jimmie Gilbert are starting to break out on the ends but they need a lot more help, especially on the inside run game.

§  UCLA’s receiving core is deep and fast.  Jordan Payton is the leader, but no less than six guys have had big plays and days and any of them could be the one to find the wide seams in the Buff defense late in the play.  The secondary has its hand full and no matter who plays, they will be running a lot try to keep up with this bunch.

§  RB Paul Perkins grabbed the job from Jordon James and has been extremely effective, although he has been limited lately.  It would be a nice day for the real Addison Gillam to show up and introduce himself early and often so the secondary doesn’t have to make so many tackles.

§  It will be interesting to see who lines up in the secondary as the Buffs have tried a new starting four or five the last few games.  Henderson, Crawley, Thompson and Awuzie will almost certainly be out there, but who the fifth guy is and what their alignment is (both Awuaie and Henderson have slid inside to the slot while someone else comes in at the outside corner) in the nickel is the unknown; will it be John Walker, Akhello Witherspoon, Evan White, Terrel Smith, Marques Mosley or will Yuri Wright finally get his shot?

Special Teams:

§  The Bruins have a very dangerous return man in Ishmael Adams (who also sneaks in on offense) and if we don’t keep the ball out of his hands, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he got into the endzone, especially on a kickoff if they don’t get them out of the endzone since Adams likes to line up on the endline and is not afraid to take it out. Could Chris Graham get a chance or two to boom a kickoff at altitude?

§  But Adams likely won’t have as much opportunity on punts as Darragh O’Neill continues to shine, booming the ball for 45+ yards a kick and still pinning the opponent inside the 20 over half the time. I love the “Silver and Gold” podcast and Twitter campaign promoting him for Heisman. 

§  Wil Oliver is a good kicker, great on PATs and usually reliable inside 40, but that is it.

§  Overall, even though they have only really played one complete game this year, UCLA has too much talent (again) and should be able to ride that to a win.  I am done picking upsets-UCLA 38 CU 27, so Buffs cover, but hopefully the voodoo of me picking against them reverses some trend in the universe and leads to a domino effect.

§  If  you need some more:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2014/cu-vs-no-25-ucla-a-preview/

Rumblin’ Preview: http://rumblinbuff.blogspot.com/2014/10/2014-ucla-football-preview.html

Ralphie Report: http://www.ralphiereport.com/buffaloes-bruins/2014/10/24/7052805/buffs-vs-bruins-the-preview

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ucla14/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600

UCLA Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ucla14/uclanotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600

University of Southern California Trojans Preview

There are a lot of people who are still preoccupied with the phantom pass interference call against Kenneth Crawley that very well may have sealed the Buffs’ fate against Oregon St., but the fact of the matter is the team, while infinitely better than the last few versions, is still making way too many critical mistakes, often at the most inconvenient times.  Dropped passes, missed tackles, weak line play at times on both sides, Sefo making the one really bad INT at the worst moment.  They cannot afford to make any of these mistakes against USC if they have a chance, which I think they actually might, even if it is only a tiny little smidgeon of a chance in the topsy-turvy unpredictable road teams are 15-4 Pac12.

§  Line: This one opened at 19.5 and quickly went up, settling around 20, but the Buffs have covered every week they have been an underdog.

§  Depth Chart moves/Burn the Redshirt: Unless there is a major injury it appears all redshirts will be kept as even Jay MacIntyre has been taken off the “substitute” list on the depth chart..

§  Injuries: The Buffs appear to be as healthy as they have all season with only season ending injuries being listed as this point. Addison Gillam, Christian Powell and Markeis Reed are all expected to play.

§  The Trojans, on the other hand, have been plagued with injuries to an already depleted roster, but they still have a ton of talent, even on their raw true frosh.

§  The USC secondary has taken many hits but most everyone is expected to play.

§  WR Ajene is not expected to play.

§   

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  The offense has been able to move the ball, eat up clock and put up points, and they will need to do so in order to compete with the Trojans.  Sefo has been better than ever could have been expected and the Trojan defense has struggled at times against the pass.  They are also playing a lot of freshmen.  The Buffs can keep it close if they can keep DE Leonard Williams and do-it-all safety-linebacker Sua Cravens from making too many plays.

§  WR Nelson Spruce has to get involved as Oregon St. took him out of the game.  He will only open things up for everyone else.  Sefo needs to take a few more shots downfield.

§  The running game has been okay at times, but outside of the early BC debacle, USC has been strong against the run and it will be hard for CU to get much here.  They may need to mix it up and try some trick plays.

§  This will be the biggest test yet for the o-line, especially the tackles against Willliams.

When the Trojans have the ball:

§   Javorious “Buck” Allen has been tearing it up and is putting himself in the Heisman discussion.  He killed the Buffs last year and if he does that again, he will vault up the rankings.  He will get his yards, but the Buffs need to limit his big plays.  Addison Gillam and Ken Olugbode, both returning to their home state, must have good games.

§  Likewise, the secondary, which has really been the strength of the defense, has to keep Cody Kessler from going off. Of course, this is also on the defensive line, which must get some semblance of a pass rush so he doesn’t have time for the speedy USC receivers to get open, especially Nelson Agholor.

Special Teams:

§   Agholor is also a serious threat on returns and Oliver needs to get kickoffs deep into the endzone and Darragh needs to continue pinning opponents deep.

§  Overall, all the stats and talent point to a big USC win and at first I was tempted to go with a 37-24 loss.  But what the fuck, I am a total homer and even though they have never beaten Southern Cal (yeah, I had to say it once), if the Buffs come out firing from the get go, take some chances and completely limit mistakes, they can keep this road bashing conference streak alive. Buffs 33 Trojans 29 in a crazy normal game.

§  It’s a pretty late kickoff, so if  you need some more:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2014/cu-at-southern-california-a-preview/

Ralphie Report: http://www.ralphiereport.com/colorado-buffaloes-usc-trojans/2014/10/17/6990955/buffaloes-trojans-preview

Rumblin’ Preview: http://rumblinbuff.blogspot.com/2014/10/2014-usc-football-preview.html

Pacific takes: http://www.pacifictakes.com/2014/10/16/6986769/the-5-step-colossal-road-upset-plan

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/usc14/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600

USC Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/usc14/uscnotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600

Oregon State Preview

The Buffs lost a heartbreaker last weekend when the offense once again could not punch it in at the goal line during overtime and Cal’s kicker chipped in the game winner after Wil Oliver had missed THREE makeable FGs earlier in the game.  The team has generally played better in many respects each game, especially on offense, but the defense, and specifically the defensive line, has not been able to keep the other team from scoring more.  It is certainly encouraging that Colorado is keeping themselves in the game, but if they don’t get this one, the schedule gets really tough after the bye with Oregon (will be pissed after a loss now), USC (always kills us) and UCLA (won’t take us lightly after last year).   OSU is coming off a terrible performance, especially their second half and especially QB Sean Mannion.  I don’t expect OSU to play that badly two games in a row and Mannion will likely come out firing so the Buffs have to shake off the OT loss to Cal and man up.  Both teams have been sloppy and are among the nation’s worst at accumulating penalties and the Pac12 refs have been on fire lately so expect a lot of yellow and some “interesting” calls.  Whosever defense, and more specifically, whose defensive line, can limit the other team’s offensive output, will have the leg up in this probable shootout.

§  Line: OSU opened as 6.5-7.5 favorites and that has crept up a little further at some books.

§  Depth Chart moves/Burn the Redshirt: Unless there are injuries, we are likely done with burning redshirts this season.  However, the five who have played will see their roles increase as the season goes on-WR Shay Fields, RB/WR scatback Donovan Lee, S Evan White, DE Christian Shaver and DT Eddy Lopez.

§  Injuries: S Tedric Thompson should be back after leaving the game and the Buff defense defenseless with a bruised sternum.

§  DE Markeis Reed is back practicing but probably won’t see the field until after the bye week.

§  R-Fr. WR Elijah Dunston tore his ACL in practice and is out for the year.  He hadn’t played at all on offense, but this does leave Jay MacIntyre as the next man up if there are any more injuries here (although So. Devin Ross, who is slated to redshirt, could also be called upon).

§  OSU is has suffered numerous injuries of late, including to three defensive tackles, although they are getting one back; WR Victor Bolden is questionable and was to test his dislocated finger catching the ball Thursday; speedy WR Rahmel Dockery, S Ty Zimmerman and LB DJ Alexander are all expected to return; offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo is still out.

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  The CU offense has become a national headline and the most prolific version we may have ever seen here.  Sefo is confident, beginning to limit his mistakes and has wide variety of weapons to utilize; even though he hit Nelson Spruce 19 times last week, he also completed passes to 11 other receivers.  Tyler McCulloch has been the biggest surprise to me as big possession guy, almost a TE.  (This offense will only get better as the year goes on and next season they really only lose 5 seniors who play and all have capable replacements waiting in the wings.)

§  However, Oregon St. has quietly become a strong defense, currently ranked 16^th in the country.  They supposed play very solid fundamental football, rarely has anyone caught out of position, and although there are no national superstar types, they just make plays.  They are led by Sambacker Michael Doctor and Sefo will need to account for him every single play.  Obum Gwacham is their main pass rusher and will likely go after Nembot and Irwin.

§  CB Steven Nelson will likely be given the task of slowing Spruce, who is very hard to double cover, both because of the WR depth and his outstanding hands. The entire starting secondary are upperclassmen so they are experienced.

§  After a couple of DT injuries (OSU claiming some borderline dirty USC blocks) the Trojans were able to grind away at the Beaver defense and the Buffs will hope to do the same.  This could be especially important late in the game with the altitude and defensive guys wearing down.

§  The running back by committee approach has not fared that well and although there has been a smattering of success at times, Lindgren has not been able to keep the hot hand going and has never gotten Michael Adkins started.  Tony Jones was the man last week and I would expect him to get the first and most touches again, but we should see all four guys.  I am still waiting for Phillip Lindsay’s breakout on offense and it needs to come soon.  It would be nice if this group could play well and control the game against the depleted Beaver d-line and keep Mannion off the field some.

§  The offensive line may be improving, but they are not creating big holes for the RBs, Sefo is still taking way too many hits and the goal line and short yardage percentages have been awful, leaving a ton of points on the field after failed 3^rd and 4^th and ones. A lot of that is on the play calling in those situations as MacIntyre and Lindgren should have realized that they can’t just pound it in with this line. 

§  However, the play calling in other situations has been more creative lately and I would expect to see a couple more wrinkles rolled out this week.  Can Shay Fields or Donovan Lee throw the ball?

§  FB/TE/DE George Frazier has become a very nice little weapon, with three TDs in the last two games, plus a handful of tackles on defense.  TE Sean Irwin is also finally getting into the act, and even Kyle Slavin caught a ball near the goal line.

When the Beavers have the ball:

§  QB Mannion is a very dangerous and tore apart the Buffs last year, but he has proved to be much less so this year without an All-American receiver to look to at crucial moments and his and the team’s production is way down (much to the chagrin of my fantasy team).  Richard Mullaney is the main target and the best deep weapons Bolden and Dockery have been banged up.  They also have a few young weapons that could be dangerous. The trio of big, capable TEs have had only limited success this year but were huge last year.

§  USC all but shut them down in the second half last week and I am sure the DC Kent Baer has dissected that film.  The fact of the matter is, though, that the Buffs simply do not have the size, strength, speed or general talent that the Trojans presented, especially on the defensive line.  However, if they do find some creative ways to get some pressure on Mannion, he has always been prone to interceptions.

§  Just having Tedric Thompson back should boost the defense as they were not the same without him, leading 21-7 when he went out and being outscored 52-35 the rest of the way. Could Thompson make it four games in a row with a pick?

§  The rest of the secondary has been playing great from Chido to Crawley (has been limiting his bonehead misakes) to nickel John Walker.  Teams have not been afraid to go Greg Henderson because of the group’s strength and he might have actually been the weakest link giving up two TDs.  Evan White is showing at times why they were so high on him, but also that he is still a freshman (I could see him forcing Jered Bell back to corner and nickel next season.  Marques Mosley was very pedestrian in his time out there.  We have still hardly seen any signs of Terrell Smith, Akhello Witherspoon or Yuri Wright.

§  Derek McCartney is starting to come into his own and is probably the best player on the d-line. They are still young and not that big or strong, but they are becoming less of a liability.  Clay Norgard has become quite a pest in passing situations and has gotten some pressure on QBs, including a sack.  Otherwise, there is not a lot to write about with others only occasionally making any notable positive plays.

§  Storm Woods and Terron Ward present a challenge at RB and the CU defense has let everyone run on them.  These two could have a big day if they don’t get slowed early in the game.  They got away from the run game after early success last week, but I would expect to see an emphasis on it against us.

§  LB Addsion Gillam has never quite looked himself after battling an illness early in camp and losing a bunch of weight (reported as 7 pounds but I think it was more).  He has been good but not great, without the same closing speed and tenacity to get to the ball and finish the tackle.  Ken Olugbode was had some incredible plays, both ways, including having both arms wrapped around Daniel Lasco, before he slipped out and sprinted 70+ yards more for the TD.  Woodson Greer has played sparingly against mostly passing teams, while Brady Daigh and Ryan Severson have been fine as replacements at times but not a whole lot more. Linebacker play was supposed to be a strength of this team, but so far has been mediocre overall, and frankly needs to be much better for this team to make it over the hump. 

Special Teams:

§   This group took a big, but hopefully temporary, step backwards last week as Wil Oliver couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn missing three not very long FGs, nor kick the ball out of the endzone, allowing some pretty good field position to Cal after the many scores.  Even Darragh O’Neill had his worst day of the year, shanking two punts in the crucial 3^rd quarter.

§  I will keep writing it so that I will look smart when he does: Phillip Lindsay is due for a kickoff TD if someone can just make that one big block that opens the hole.  However, OSU has also shown the ability for some big returns with a 97-yards TD last week.

§  Overall, it’s hard to see this being anything other than another shootout, but one that the Buffs are capable of winning.  It will be awful and my heart and stomach, but Sefo goes off again and eventually outduels Mannion 48-45 in regulation.

§  If  you need some more:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2014/cu-vs-oregon-state-a-preview/

Ralphie Report Preview: http://www.ralphiereport.com/colorado-buffaloes-oregon-state-beavers/2014/10/2/6886193/buffaloes-vs-beavers-the-preview

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/osu14/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600

Oregon St. Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/osu14/osunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600