The first game of the 2012 campaign is just
around the corner and I can almost hear the crowd as Ralphie starts her charge
across the field at “Mile High”. The
rivalry (I won’t try and play nebraska and ignore it) against the lambs is
always interesting since it is their biggest game of the year and usually the
first game of the year. As it has been
most of the last decade plus and will be (according to contract) most of the
next decade or so, the game will be played at the big stadium with a long name
in Denver before a fairly rowdy, if somewhat small crowd. CU has sold most of its ticket allotment and
csu has only been able to sell a small portion of theirs, including only about
3000 student ducats. Here is the first
preview of the year.
§ Colorado
will always be favored against their little sister from the North, but csu also
spends all summer studying film and trying to figure out ways to surprise the
Buffs. Additionally, many of their
players are guys that CU did not bother recruiting so they are always up for
playing against them. This year will be
no different as the lambs bring a new coach, new schemes and a thin roster
minus two of its best players who were dismissed. New coach jim mcelwain comes from ‘Bama and
must already be looking for a way out of fort Collins. However, he at least
professes to have seen great progress in his team during camp and they are just
now starting to implement the game plan for CU (yeah right!). The Buffs start
out as 6-7 point favorites and should easily cover.
§ Interestingly,
the two teams share a lot in common including an overall young team, new QB, defense
led by LBs, a very young secondary, young receivers, a desire to pound the ball
in the run game behind experienced lines.
§ NOTE: Colorado
has eight players that will be wearing duplicate uniform numbers : No. 4 (QB
Jordan Webb; LB Kyle Washington); No. 5 (QB Connor Wood; CB Yuri Wright); No. 8
(QB Nick Hirschman; P Darragh O’Neill); No. 15 (TE Vincent Hobbs; P Zach
Grossnickle); No. 21 (RB D.D. Goodson; DB Jered Bell); No. 42 (RB Josh Ford; LB
K.T. Tu’umalo); No. 55 (C Gus Handler; LB Josh Tupou); and No. 83 (WR Dustin
Ebner; DL Will Pericak). Nos. 21 and 42
could be the most problematic in identifying players on specials teams as those
players could all be involved on those units. (Brian Lockridge and Greg
Henderson, both 20, were often misidentified by analysts last year.)
§ The
only injury reported, besides P-Rich of course, is LG Alex Lewis is listed as “probable”,
nursing a sprained ankle, wearing a boot most of the day, but he has practiced
without it and he will play.
§ When
the Buffs have the ball: The Buffs are being led by new QB Jordan
Webb, who is neither tall, nor Cody, but throws an accurate ball and uses his
experience to make good decisions. His
first and main job is to hand the ball off early and often to Tony Jones and
the stable of RBs. The offensive line is
the strongest group on offense and should be able to open up a lot of space for
the rushers and give some time to Webb to throw. When he does throw, it will be to an
inexperienced group of receivers, so there will be a lot of safe, short passes,
especially early. However, this team
will also take its shots deep and look for true frosh Gerald Thomas to become
the deep threat for this offense.
§ The
offensive line is considered one of the team’s strengths with four guys
returning with starting experience, a versatile utility backup in Sr. Ryan
Dannewitz, lots of young depth and are led by nationally respected (nominated
for everything and on every list, most recently the ESPN’s preseason All Pac-12
team) Jr. LT David Bahktiari. They are
excited to run the ball a lot, know each other well and even if something
happens to someone, they shouldn’t miss a beat with Dannewitz, who can give
basically anyone a spell if needed. C
Gus Handler, LG Alex Lewis and RT Jack Harris all have All-Pac 12 potential
(not to mention some of their younger backups in the future).
§ The general
offensive strategy sets up great for the lambs defense as their d-line is their
weakest area, having lost some players to injury and dismissal from an already
shaky group. Similar to the Buffs, the csu linebackers, even with the loss of the two idiots, are considered the strength unit of the defense, led by Shaquil Barret and James Skelton. With their this glut of depth at linebacker the coaches have been vague and deceptive (the depth chart was different than what was reported in interviews) and nobody is exactly sure if the csu defense is a 3-4 or a 4-3. It is more likely a (increasingly more common) hybrid where one or two guys can stand up or put a hand down on the line. No matter how they line up, the LBs will have to make a lot of plays,
especially if Bahktiari and the o-line get in a groove.
§ Don't worry, Jordan
Webb will still throw the ball and he has been given the “power” to call audibles at
the line. This will be very interesting
to watch, especially to see if he checks out of an early down running play for a
deep ball-if it works, he has free reign, if not EB will be fuming on the
sideline.
§ No
decision yet (Wed. AM) on who will be the backup QB, Nick Hirshman or Connor
Wood.
§ Although
mcelwain has praised his secondary, it is a relatively slow group and will also
play a few freshmen and sophomores. However, So. Momo Thomas started as a frosh
and brings attitude to the group.
§ Webb
should be able to take his shots against them, as well as pick up the shorter
yards when needed. Sr. Dustin Ebner and
R-Fr. Nelson Spruce should not have too much difficulty getting open on the
short to medium routes. Receivers like
Thomas and fellow true frosh, TE Vincent Hobbs could pick up some serious yards
after catch if they get the ball on the run.
I am also excited to see how So. WR Tyler McCulloch responds in his
second season after being thrown into the fire last year, as well as So. TE
Kyle Slavin, who should be ready to show off some of his skills as he supposedly
has finally figured “it” out.
§ However,
none of this should really matter; if the 0-line does their job, it will be relatively
easy for the rest of the offense to do theirs.
§ Bienemy
should not have to show much of his playbook for the Buffs to pick up some
yards, burn some clock and score some points.
Some of the younger backup players should get some game experience late
in this one.
§ When
the lambs have the ball: CU cannot really be sure of what type of offense the lambs will run, how they
will line up and what trickery they could employ to make up for the talent
deficiency. The offensive coaches and
mcelwain come from a variety of backgrounds and have worked with all styles of
offense, so they will probably have a lot of different “looks” to show CU, who
must play solid individually and as a team, making adjustments as they go.
§ csu
will also definitely try to rely on the run as their best player is RB Chris
Nwoke, who will carry the load even more than he did last year. Their most experienced unit is also their
offensive line. I think they will
double team DT Wil Pericak a lot early on all downs, with the lack of
experience across the rest of the line.
§ This
will be a big test for the at least five frosh who will play in the defensive
line rotation. Word is that T-Fr. DT Josh
Tupou is a beast and everyone is excited to see his debut, as well as that of
Solis, Tyler Henington, John Stuart and Samson Kofavalu. Chidera Uzo-Diribe and Juda Parker should be
able to wreak a little havoc on the outside and get some pressure on the QB,
maybe a couple of sacks. If the Buffs
can control this line of scrimmage they will easily win.
§ Garret
Grayson is a fairly mobile QB who will likely need to use that skill a lot as
their receivers are thin. Their best
pass catcher is their TE, Crocket Gilmore and WR Thomas Coffman is likely out
for this game.
§ However,
this first game will also be a big test for the three or four that could see
time in the CU secondary. While the
lambs will likely try to pound it early to draw the safeties in, use a lot of
formation shifts and misdirection plays as well as use a little play action to
confuse them, they will also try to test the young CBs and take some deep
shots. Granted, the lamb offense might
be licking their chops looking at our secondary, however, they might be in for
a little surprise if they think they can pick on T-Fr. CB Kenneth Crawley
amidst a quietly strong and experienced secondary with Sr. Ray Polk and Jr.
Terrel Smith at safety and super-soph Greg Henderson at the other corner. They are very young and untested at the
backups, but those guys also should get some good garbage time reps late in the
game.
§ This
may be one of the few games that CU starts in its base defense, meaning Parker
Orms will likely start the game on the sidelines, although he will play early
and often. If the Buffs stop the run or
get a nice lead and force them to throw, or if csu happens to have any early success
in the air, Orms will be on the field. (As there are seven pass-happy offenses,
many of them “spread” formations, Orms will start many games as the nickel and
LB Derrick Webb might not start those.)
§ Special
Teams: The Rams announced that they won’t even know their kicker
until game day (are they going to flip a coin?
Have a “kick-off”: whoever makes a FG gets to play?). The Buffs meanwhile return starters at all
kicking positions and definitely hold the advantage here. Although our
returners are basically all freshmen, they are very fast and I expect a big
play or two out of the return game for the first time in years.
§ Overall, the Buffs have the edge
in almost every category and should easily win, on paper. However, the
opening game, a “rivalry” game, and a completely new coaching staff leaves a
lot of unknowns and CU cannot rest on the talent advantage alone. They must play smart, not giving up any big
plays or turnovers early. I could see CU
struggling a little early, but they should have too much size, speed and talent
not to run away with it in the second half, if they let it stay close that
long.
§ Bulletin Board: The
Fort Collins Coloradan actually printed that there weren’t “any reasons why the
rams should lose the game.” Wow, even I
can come up with a couple of reasons why they might actually win, even though I
believe it to be highly unlikely. I
kinda hope the csu players read that and drive to the big city thinking it is
true.
§ More
Links on the game:
Stuart from CUattheGame.com gives us his TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2012/colorado-state-preview/
Dave Plati’s Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu12/cunotes.pdf?SPSID=3843&SPID=255&DB_OEM_ID=600
csu game notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu12/csunotes.pdf?SPSID=3843&SPID=255&DB_OEM_ID=600
David Gerhardt from RalphieReport gives his key
matchups: http://www.ralphiereport.com/2012/8/29/3276219/colorado-buffaloes-colorado-state-rams-key-matchups
And of course, no game preview would be complete
without Buffnik’s uncensored version: http://www.allbuffs.com/content.php/1500-A-really-******-preview-of-the-2012-CU-vs-CSU-football-game
Go Buffs!csu
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