csu lamb Preview

csu lamb Preview

It’s Game Day Eve morning and I am finally getting this out as I count down the hours until Ralphie runs across SA Field and CU kicks off the season!  Although I agree with all of the points made by Boulder Devil http://buffwatch.blogspot.com/2013/08/just-say-no-to-denver-hosting-rocky.html and others, I will indeed be making the trip down to Mile High.  I just can’t not go to a CU game when I am in the state, even though the series has spiraled downward in excitement, meaning and attendance, even though both teams have been mired in a perpetual slump since the good old days of Sonny and Bradlee vs. Barnett and Klatt, even though I am the only one of eight ticket holders in the family who is planning on actually attending-although a couple will give in at the last minute and go.  And I am taking a friend and his two kids who will be attending their first football game of any sort.  I can’t wait until the series returns to campuses, but I am not willing to deprive myself of college football in the meantime.  So, let’s get to the preview and the game…

§  First of all, it’s time for this game to get back to the blowout it was and should be!

§  Both teams emphasized quick tempo in fall practices and this game should feature a lot of yards and points as both defenses are suspect.  Both teams are fairly young and inexperienced and will play a lot of different guys.  Both teams have a few Colorado guys, but more from California.  

§  The line has been 3.5 points both ways at different times and all over the place. Not sure what is but I don’t care because this has been one of the most unpredictable games, especially with a new coaching staff on at least one of the sidelines.

§  Burn the Redshirt: A total of 13 true freshmen are listed on three/four deep that could play this year, so “Who’s gonna burn their redshirt today?” is still a viable pre-game tailgater conversation starter (#BurntheRedshirt will also become and in-game Twitter ritual).  There are six newbies listed on the two-deep that should see action this week, and maybe as many as nine or ten. LB Addison Gilliam will be out there first defensive snap unless they start in the nickel in which case it will be DB Chidobe Awuzie; also expect to see DEs Jimmie Gilbert and Derek McCartney on defense and WRs Devin Ross and Jeff Thomas on offense; if they really liked what they saw with George Frazier at fullback, we could see him paving the way for the RBs and possibly Michael Adkins (does this mean Lindsay is slated for a redshirt?), they just might get him some offensive touches and special teams work right away?

§  The maybes would be Olugbode, who is listed 2^nd at LB behind Webb but could just start out on special teams also, same as walk-on Ryan Moeller; Tedric Thompson is listed as co-backupn at safety (with Smith, behind Bell) and could also see action; the offensive lineman would only play in emergency with multiple injuries. There is a slim chance TE Connor Center’s size gets him on the field at a weak position.

§  And, of course, we could see a little Sefo package mixed into the game plan…but probably not yet...although with closed practice...

§  I also count at least four redshirt freshmen that could see action at some point: OG Alex Kelley, LB Clay Norgard, CB John Walker and DE D’Jon Wilson.

§  Game Captains: Of the six captains-D Webb, Chidera, Vigo, Harris, P-Rich, Wood-not sure which four will get to be on the field for the opener but maybe the first four listed-the seniors?

§  Injuries: The Buffs have a long list of injuries but few are to players in the two-deep. The biggest hole might be with versatile offensive lineman Jeromy Irwin who is out indefinitely after breaking a foot at home. DB Josh Moten is out for the season but that is old news (and I guess we could mention Jordan Webb).  K Justin Castor is also out for the season. Josh Ford is out at least a month, but everyone else is expected to play, with Yuri Wright probable recovering from a concussion.

§  The defensive line from csu had been hit hard by injuries but it appears most are healthy.

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  Connor Wood time is now.  Everyone says he is way better now than he was last year, the offense is simpler and he has more to work with for receivers.   However, this game will be won in the trenches: if CU’s offensive line, experienced but not necessarily proven nor have they all worked together much, can give some time, this offense should be able to move the ball and score some points, especially with the stable of capable receivers Coach Troy Walters has been preparing. Daniel Munyer is back practicing but with limited reps so it is very possible Alex Kelley will get a series or two. As noted above, csu’s d-line has been hampered with injuries.  Look for the Buffs to run right behind Nembot a lot and to protect him a little with TEs and RB chips on passing downs.  Supposed all snap snafus are in the past with Gus Handler.  If this group can’t handle it, there is not much depth to try out after Kelley and Mustoe so they just better do the job.

§  The lamb-backers, led by Shaquil Barrett, are supposedly the team’s strength, meaning they will work very hard to stop the run on early downs and make life difficult for Wood. They also have Cory James, who sometimes plays like a DE and wreaked his havoc on the Buffs last year.  If the o-line doesn’t win the battle in the trenches, these guys could be trouble for Wood and the RBs.

§  CB Shaq Bell is the best cover lamb and will likely draw P-Rich early and often.  It will be interesting to see how much they double him, or if they just ask Bell to smother him.  Look for the QB (again, it has not been announced yet and all four were in the competition as late as last week) to take a shot at P-Rich early, or if he is obviously doubled, to Devin Ross or Jeff Thomas on the other side.

§  Scottie Fernandez has received high praise of late after receiving lots of extra reps with the ones (Slavin injury) and he just might surprise.

§  The not so sleeper pick this year is WR DD Goodson (although my Pac12 fantasy league also allows me to play him as an RB!) and a lot of people close to the program are expecting big things from him.  He may be too quick for a lot of defenders to handle this year, with a monster spin move after the catch.  Look for him to have numerous catches and to break a long one off of that spin move. Frosh Devin Ross backs him up and has also been “explosive” in recent practices.

§  However, listening to coaches of late, especially OC Brian Lindgren, this team wants to be able to run the ball more than a lot of people, specifically San Jose fans, might expect.  Christian Powell is a bruiser and if the Buffs can run the ball effectively with him and mix it up with Tony Jones and maybe Donta Abron and the frosh Adkins, the passing game will open up that much more and it will be a long day indeed for the dozens of csu fans expected at the game.

§  The Buffs should have a great “Jumbo” package for short yardage situations with Scottie Fernandez and a bunch of big TEs, Powell at RB and some options at FB (including frosh Frazier).

When the lambs have the ball:

§  Coach macelwain announced early in camp that they wanted to name a starter soon, but now it looks like they can’t decide, and it’s not because they are all playing lights out, so he is saying that he may play as many as three QBs, which should bode well for the Buffs, if he actually follows through on this “threat”. Garret Grayson is the most experienced and will likely get the start, but doesn’t look like he will play the whole game, especially if the defense makes him look bad early.  Soph. Conner Smith was pretty good down the stretch last year and true frosh Nick Stevens has impressed and has the most upside.  MacIntyre said early in the week he “guarantees” macelwain already knew his starter and plan.

§  No matter whom it is at QB, the lambs will try to pass the ball to a bunch of mediocre inexperienced receivers and take advantage of a secondary that has been very suspect in the recent past.  Look for them to take shots deep on their first drive and throughout the game with Charles Lovett as primary target.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Crawley was the target of a few.  They always seem to hit a TE in the seam for a huge gain against us as well and Sr. Crockett Glimore (gotta admit that is a great name) is the guy to watch but they also have Kivon Cartwright.  I expect to see a lot of frosh Chido Awuzie in nickel and dime packages (and more?) as well as safeties Marques Mosley and Terrel Smith.

§  Just as on the other side of the ball, line play will be crucial and if the Buff defensive line can win the battle in the trenches against a very experience lamb line, it will take some pressure off the secondary and allow Derrick Webb and the other Buff linebackers to make plays.  Coach Jeffcoat thinks he has eight guys ready to go but would prefer 10 rotating on the d-line. Look for csu to focus on and double-team Chidera often, which should open things up for guys like Juda Parker, Paul Vigo and secondary blitzes from Chido and others.

§  There has not been a ton on the lamb running game, and they plan on rotating a lot of backs, starting with bowling ball senior Chris Nwoke and followed by up to five freshmen and sophomores led by Donnell Alexander.  If the Buff D is disciplined, “get to the ball” as they preach in practice, and wrap up when tackling, it won’t matter who is carrying the ball, although Nwoke is certainly the toughest to bring down. Of course, if they can’t slow down the run, it will be a long day for the other side of the stadium.

§  DC Kent Baer has talked to the team a lot about and worked hard on creating more turnovers.  I think the Buffs get a defensive TD in this one.

Special Teams:

§  This group should be much improved for the Buffs this year, just because they were absolutely awful on returns and coverage last year, and have dedicated Toby Neinas to coach just special teams, not to mention that they have dedicated a lot of time to it. Both teams proclaimed to have focused on and improved in this area. I almost expect at least one trick play along the way from someone.

§  Spruce should be a solid punt returner and we’ll see what the coaches decide on the go for kickoffs (although more and more will be touchbacks).  If it’s close late I would not be surprised at all to see P-Rich field a punt-he is listed as #2.

§  The lambs say they really like what redshirt freshman Hayden (hate that name) Hunt is doing, replacing a four-year starter, and feel good about his punting.  (One way to change that quickly.)

§  Their depth at LB depth bodes well for their special teams units with a decent combination of size and speed. 

§  However, the Buffs have a distinct advantage with the legs and feet of their solid kicker and nationally recognized punter (as they actually will over most opponents this season).  Darragh O’Neill will begin his All-America and Ray Guy Award campaign this week-let’s just hope he doesn’t get too much work, and I don’t believe he will.  Wil Oliver has been very consistent rarely misses an extra point and he feels confident well into the 50’s on FGs; he will handle kickoffs as well with the intention of blasting it deep into or out of the endzone most of the time.

§  Plus, Ryan Iverson is an experienced long-snapper who also gets down on coverage (Neinas has noticed and likes that) and O’Neill is now also a capable, and let’s not forget, very athletic, holder-I would expect to see him run a fake at some point this year, and if you can pull it off in the first game of the year, every team has to worry about it that much more.

§  Oliver will also handle kickoffs full-time this year and has been hitting deep into and out of the endzone pretty consistently.

Overall,

§  We should see a lot of different quarterbacks, a lot of offense and a ton of empty seats.  The most important areas to watch are hard to see sometimes, but line play will probably decide this game.  Bottom line, the Buffs better go out and just win this damn game! 

§  Buffs 34 lambs 17

§  If you want some more, need some more, and I know you do if you are reading this…

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2013/colorado-state-preview-2/

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu13/cunotes.pdf

All your GameDay info: http://www.cubuffs.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=600&ATCLID=209225591

csu game notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu13/csunotes.pdf

Go Buffs!  Beat them lambies!