This
game is a 6:00PM kickoff and has been designated a “blackout” game. The Buffs will need to take a few risks to
win a game like this one; a conservative game plan just won’t cut it. I expect to see a wide open game (take
whatever the over is), with a few instances of trickery from both sides, as
each team sees this game as a crucial W possibility.
Paul
Richardson sent the CU student body an email asking them for support. I hope everyone
is on time (c’mon you’ve got all day to drink!) to see Ralphie (~6:02) and
support the team early. Let’s fill Folsom and get rowdy Colorado!
§ Interesting Notes: CU leads the series
13-2, 5-1 in at home, and won the last game in Boulder.
§ Stuart
from CUattheGame notes that Friday (October 25) was the 27th anniversary
of the 1986 20-10 upset of Nebraska here in Boulder that was the turning point
for the program under Bill MacCartney, the original and only Coach Mac.
§ Sometimes
I do forget how young this team still is, and one stat floating around has been
that there are only two players on offense who have 20 career starts-Gus
Handler and Daniel Munyer. On defense it’s
only four: Henderson, D Webb, Chidera and Orms.
§ If
you were thinking of wearing pink to the game, you might think again: http://buffwatch.blogspot.com/2013/10/university-of-colorado-calls-for.html
§ Line: Arizona is opened at -17, but had
gone down to 15 pretty quickly, and has fallen as low as 13. Is everyone betting on the Buffs? Well, Matt Barrie of ESPN is not as he picked
Arizona -13 as his pick of the week, and he is an ASU grad and fan.
§ Injuries: Tackle Marc Mustoe is out for
the season with a broken fibula; Nelson Spruce played last week; Alex Wood is
still day-to-day with a concussion.
Otherwise, outside of Ford (down to 1-2 from 2-3 weeks) and Irwin
(season/redshirt), they look to be healthy, but there always seems to be a
surprise scratch on game day.
§ Wildcat
safety and star Tra’mayne Bondurant is out with a concussion and his backfield
mate, Jared Tevis is doubtful with his knee.
§ Depth Chart moves/Burn the Redshirt: There really are no redshirts left to burn and
MacIntyre says he doesn’t foresee any more unless there are further injuries. MacIntyre
said that if something were to happen to offensive tackles Harris or Nembot, then
Munyer or Crabb would move outside and Alex Kelly would come in at guard, and
that Sam Kronshrage will still redshirt.
§ The
only changes on offense really last week were that Adkins and Powell started
together in the backfield and no other RB got any quality snaps. They will
probably continue to tinker with and use this formation a lot more.
§ Connor
Wood got a garbage series which had to be tough, but better than having Jordan
Webb out there for all concerned.
§ On
defense, Woodson Greer and not Derrick Webb stayed on the field when Chido Awuzie
(not John Walker) came in for the nickel package, and De’Jon Wilson broke into
the d-line rotation.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ The
Buffs need to do two main things on offense: run the ball, keeping control for
extended drives, to keep the Arizona offense off the field as much as possible,
and then make sure the Buff drives end with some touchdowns, because Arizona
will score some points.
§ Arizona
is by no means one of the top defenses in the conference, have some vulnerabilities
and the Buffs will have some chances to make some plays against them.
§ Sefo
Liufau looked good in his starting debut, completing around 70% of his passes
with no turnovers. However, that was
with a pretty conservative game plan. In
order to really give them a chance in this game, they will need to take a few
more risks and make some plays, preferably earlier than later. I would expect
to see some new wrinkles in the offense this week from Brian Lindgren, with
Sefo both running more (some zone read, although Arizona runs it and therefore
practices against it) and also throwing downfield more.
§ They
need to involve more receivers than just P-Rich and Spruce. DD Goodson has to touch the ball more than
one or two times a game. I would love to see more Devin Ross also. I wouldn’t mind seeing some more trickery. And
please, any tight end, let’s catch a ball or two and make the defense be
accountable.
§ The
one-two rushing punch of Powell and Adkins was very effective against an injury-depleted,
smaller, FCS defense, but they need a repeat performance against the Wildcats. I really like it when they line up both in
the backfield, either with Powell as the fullback, or with them both behind
Liufau, or flanking him in the pistol formation.
§ It
looks like both Wildcat safeties will be out: S Tra’mayne Bondurant is usually the
Wildcats’ best playmaker but is out with a concussion, and his backfield mate
Jared Tevis doesn’t appear ready to return to action with a knee injury,
leaving youngsters William Parks and Anthony Lopez for Sefo to work against.
§ LB
Marquis Flowers leads the defense and d-lineman Sione Tuihalamka and Reggie
Gilbert clog the middle.
§ In
one of the most talked about matchups, senior NFL prospect cornerback Shaquille
Richardson will likely cover his cousin Paul (yes, that one) and both teams
have been utilizing the scouting report of one cousin about the other.
When the Wildcats have the ball:
§ Ka’deem
Carey set a ridiculous record (sorry to remind you but it was 366 yards) against
the Buffs last season and led the nation in rushing yardage, and is on pace for
an even bigger year with 161 per game.
The Buffs must limit him somewhat, to that average or below, to have a
chance in this game. They will need to wrap him up and not let him get by the
first guy, though easier said than done.
§ They
must limit the big play, either on defense or special teams, especially late in
the second and early in the third quarter, when games have usually gotten away
from them.
§ BJ
Denker surprised some by winning the starting job, but might be the most underrated
QB in the conference if not nation. When
he isn’t handing off to Carey, he has been improving just about every game, and
is effective not just as a runner with the zone-read option, but also continues
to progress and produce as a passer. Their best receiver, Austin Hill, was
injured in preseason and Denker’s options are limited to some young, but fast
players like Samjie Grant and Nate Phillips.
§ In
general, the CU defense will have to be more consistent in tackling. Pac12 players will make you pay if you give
them a second chance and a little space, especially a back like Carey, who will
hit the smallest crease quickly and powerfully.
§ LB
Addison Gillam has been a tackling machine, (stats from Brian Howell at the
Camera) averaging a tackle every 6.13 snaps, with 67 so far (13 for loss) on
pace for one of the best Buff seasons ever. He will need another big game
against the Wildcats. PacificTakes' Jack Follman and others tapped him as Pac12 freshman of the year, over Cal LB Myles Jack and QB Jared Goff.
§ Woodson
Greer, not Derrick Webb, was the second LB on the field with Gillam when
Chidobe Awuzie came in for the nickel package.
That was a little surprising to me, but Greer is faster and although he
made a couple of mistakes and mis-tackles, he also had a few nice plays. The other senior captain LB, Paul Vigo, has
been relegated to special teams duty only.
§ The
Colorado defensive line was stout in the second half last week, against a
tiring, smaller defense, and after getting trashed by MacIntyre at halftime and
making adjustments to get back to the game
plan. Their work will be much more
difficult this week and they won’t have time to get settled in as Arizona will
come at them right away. It would be
fabulous if they could get a couple of hits on Denker.
§ De’Jon
Wilson was the star of the scout team and was expected to do big things this
year, but the coaching change might have been a shock and it took him awhile to
get back on track. Now it appears he is a steady part of the rotation and is
starting to rack up tackles and recovered Chidera’s latest strip; certainly
would help if he could do that trick this week also and they think Arizona is a
little susceptible to fumbles.
Special Teams:
§ The
Wildcats have not put up big numbers, but they are another very fast Pac12 squad
that could still test Toby Neinas’ crew.
Although the CU coverage teams have improved dramatically since the
first two games, they are still a worry. It would benefit greatly if Oliver
could continue getting kickoffs deep into the end zone.
§ We
will likely see Darragh continue some rugby punting, but one of these times he
is going to take off and get the first down, and he and MacIntyre have hinted
as much. I would also expect some new wrinkle on their first TD conversion try.
§ The
Colorado return teams have definitely improved as well. Ryan Severson was back on kickoff return duty
and was fine, but just does not
provide an explosive burst that you really need to break the big ones. However, he is willing to “run to darkness”
and follow the plan, even if it does appear open yet. He is actually 4th
in the conference with 23.5 yards per return and MacIntyre said he has come
close to breaking one, but I just don’t ever see him taking one all the way
without exceptional blocking, as someone will catch him from behind.
§ Nelson
Spruce also is just fine on punt
return, but was very conservative in fair-catching, or just letting punts go
last week, although that could be coaching.
If ever there was a time to give young Devin Ross a shot, or just bite
the bullet and get the ball automatically into P-Rich’s hands a few more times
a game, this divisional conference home game would be the week.
§ Arizona
has highly rated coverage teams both on kickoffs and punts, so we will see just
how good our return game is.
§ BoulderDevil’s Keys to the Game: I’ve got to agree with him, except that maybe the first number is a little
high.
–Liufau needs to continue to complete nearly 70% of his passes.
–Buffs need to convert 50% or more of their third downs.
–Buffs need to win the turnover game.
–Defense needs to limit Carey to 150 yards at most. The guy is the best in the country, so we can’t really ask the D to shut him down.
--Buffs need to be less predictable in their passing game, and get other guys involved besides Paul Richardson (or he'll end being doubled and tripled).
–Special teams need to continue their turnaround. They have been solid lately after starting the season horribly, when every return offered to put points on the board for our opponents.
–Buffs need to convert 50% or more of their third downs.
–Buffs need to win the turnover game.
–Defense needs to limit Carey to 150 yards at most. The guy is the best in the country, so we can’t really ask the D to shut him down.
--Buffs need to be less predictable in their passing game, and get other guys involved besides Paul Richardson (or he'll end being doubled and tripled).
–Special teams need to continue their turnaround. They have been solid lately after starting the season horribly, when every return offered to put points on the board for our opponents.
§ Overall, I can’t really predict a Buff win, but maybe they keep it
close under the lights. They led after
the first quarter last year, and were only down four at half, but this team is
not quite ready to compete with even the middle of the Pac12 yet. We’ll get revenge on the basketball courts. ‘Zona 38 CU 27
§ It’s
a long time until tailgating, longer until kickoff, so here are a plethora of posted
previews for your perusal:
Ralphie
Report’s Keys to the Game: http://www.ralphiereport.com/colorado-buffaloes-arizona-wildcats/2013/10/25/4866058/arizona-colorado-preview
RR’s
Key Matchups: http://www.ralphiereport.com/colorado-buffaloes-arizona-wildcats/2013/10/24/5023088/colorado-vs-arizona-key-match-ups
DesertSwarm
preview: http://www.azdesertswarm.com/2013/10/23/5023174/arizona-wildcats-football-colorado-buffaloes-preview
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ua13/cunotes.pdf
Arizona
Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ua13/uanotes.pdf
ESPN
Pac12 blog did an interview with Addison Gillam: http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/64230/qa-colorados-addison-gillam?ex_cid=espnapi_public
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