I have
been especially excited for this game as I will be attending my first road game
since Stanford in 2012, making this the 5th of the Pac12 stadiums I will have
visited for a game (saw 5 or 6 USC games at the Coliseum as a student and went
to Washington to see the Buffs play under Barnett, although I guess I was also in
Tucson previously for the Buffs vs. BC in the Insight.com Bowl). There was a
time recently when I was saying that the Buffs would shock the world in this
game. However, as the game itself
approaches, I am more and more wary of the team’s chances on the road
here. They have traditionally been awful
in the state of Arizona, are fighting some injuries on their already suspect
defense, and have to overcome so many self-inflicted obstacles each game. On top of that, Arizona is coming off of two tough
losses in three weeks to both of the LA schools and will be ready to take out
their frustrations. I am hoping the weather and the Ritz-Carlton will make up
for the game.
§ Line: Arizona (ranked #21) opened as a 16
point favorite and that is hard to argue.
§ Injuries: Here is what they are actually
telling us:
§ S
Tedric Thompson is likely still out after taking a scary hit against UCLA, but
Terrell Smith is expected to return.
§ LT
Jeromy Irwin will make the trip but is doubtful with a sprained ankle.
§ DD
Goodson twisted an ankle, is listed as questionable, but should play.
§ For
Arizona, WR Austin Hill is probable after a concussion, CB Jarvis McCall is
questionable with a shoulder, and their starting long snapper, Chase Gorham, is
doubtful with an abdominal strain.
§ Depth Chart moves:
§ LB
Addison Gillam is off the injury list, but is still probably less than 100% in
a year where he has never looked 100%, and will likely split time with Brady
Daigh, who has played admirably every time he has had to go into the game.
§ Assuming
Irwin does not play, or if he tries and can’t, line coach Gary Beernardi is not
tipping his hand if he will go with R-Fr. Sam Kronshrage, who played well in
his debut against real competition, or slide Kawai Crabb out to tackle, and
bring in Gerrad Kough, who also played well when he filled in for Crabb.
§ S
Evan White will likely get the start, with Smith and John Walker playing nickel.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ Sefo
continues to put up lights out statistics for most of the game, while making a
couple of really bonehead, costly plays.
MacIntyre said that he is basically coming to the line with three
run-pass options and making the right call most of the time. He needs to be
clean on the road (watch for linebackers underneath!) for the Buffs to stay in
the game.
§ The
CU offensive line is really playing well and the offense has been moving the
ball. The biggest barrier to the team
has been the steady flow of turnovers, seemingly always at the worst
moments. Sefo continues to throw a
terrible pick or two a game and the team has fumbled more this year than all of
last. The Buffs have got to win the
turnover battle to have any chance.
§ The
RBs are having success no matter who it is, as long as they hold onto the
ball. Adkins finally looks 100% and
should start to see the lion’s share of the work. But Tony Jones and Philip Lindsay also had
some great spark. This might be the
Buffs’ best chance if they can grind out some yards and take time off the
clock, but they can’t settle for FGs. Not
sure what Christian Powell’s situation really is and I don’t think he can
sustain being an every down running back.
§ I
am surprised that the receiver chart is not more diverse each game-last week it
was the DD Goodson show and we never say Tyler McCulloch, and very little of Shay
Fields or Bryce Bobo. Is it just what
the defense is giving them, or is it the gameplan. I certainly can’t wait until next year when
the offense might have a TE option as well.
§ LB
Scooby Wright is a monster averaging a dozen tackles per game.
When the Wildcats have the ball:
§ Arizona
has absolutely pounded the Buffs on the ground the past two years and should
continue to do so, running it early and often against a defensive line that has
struggled. They will run a lot of
read-option, which CU has not faced that much this year, although they have
struggled against it when they have. The
two-headed RB horse of true frosh RB Nick Wilson and Terris Jones-Grigsby
should find ample space to run.
§ R-Fr.
QB Anu Solomon is the new next great Pac12 signal caller and playmaker, can
move to run or just keep a play alive, and has a corps of big and fast
receivers led by Caleb Jones and Austin Hill.
Containing him will be as difficult of a task as they have faced. The Wildcats will certainly take their
chances against this secondary that has been prone to the big play, especially
as true frosh Evan White is expected to start again with Tedric Thompson out
and Terrell Smith returning from a concussion.
§ LB
Addison Gillam is supposedly “healthy”, whatever that means for him. He is a shell of his freshman self, literally
as he has lost a ton of weight due to multiple or lingering illnesses, and
figuratively, as he has just not been the same player on the field (another ‘next
year sigh’). Brady Daigh has been great
and will likely split time. Kenneth
Olugbode has been getting better and better and helps take of some of the
slack. Woodson Greer has hardly played
in the pass-happy Pac12.
§ Even
with some decent linebacker play, the Colorado secondary has had to make way too
many tackles and currently safety Chido Awuzie leads the team. This is a relatively strong group, but they
see way too many plays and often have to cover for so long because of a weak
ass pass rush, besides having to worry about the run game that often makes it
to their level.
Special Teams:
§ Wil Oliver has been booming his kickoffs deep
and limiting the return game there.
Kicking at sea level in the desert may be a different story though.
§ Darragh
O’Neill has been stellar, especially when he is asked to just boom the ball. However, when he was asked to rugby-style
kick it for a “safe” play, the Huskies returned it for a TD. Just let him wail on the ball and continue to
pin teams deep.
§ Whether
it is Nelson Spruce or Shay Fields, there has been little or no punt return
game. Just go with Fields at this point
to give him the experience, save Spruce, and give us the best chance to break
one.
§ Philip
Lindsay is so close on kickoff returns to breaking one, but we will have to see
if the fumbles last week have any effect on his “Tasmanian Devil” style.
§ Since
their long snapper is likely out, and they haven’t done much and should hang it
all out now, they should rush the crap out of kicks and try to get a block and
big play, but Neinas is scared and doubtful he takes a chance like that.
§ Overall, I just can’t see it and am expecting the Buffs to stick
around for a while, but am confident they will find a way to lose on the road,
U of A 45 CU 27.
§ If
you have the time and need some more,
for instance if you were flying down for the game:
Rumblin’
Preview (not up as of posting but should be there Friday some time): http://rumblinbuff.blogspot.com/
Ralphie
Report: http://www.ralphiereport.com/buffaloes-wildcats/2014/11/6/7151311/buffs-vs-wildcats-the-preview
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ariz14/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
Arizona
Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ariz14/ariznotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
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