Fresno St. Pre-mortem

 Coach Embree told his players it's okay to be disappointed, but not to be discouraged.  However, I am most certainly discouraged at this point and have to admit it is very difficult to talk myself into a win this week or any other on the rest of the schedule.  I was not encouraged to hear that a former player from last season, who had seen a lot of Fall camp, had said before the season even started, that he thought this team would have a hard time winning a game.  He was referring to the talent level and inexperience of the players, whose play and continued penchant for mistakes is certainly disappointing, but nowhere near as discouraging as the coaches’ contribution in the areas of game-planning, playcalling, substituting and in-game adjustments.  The focus of this and future posts will focus more on the progress of the young players and how this team could shape itself for the future.  Most people had said at the start of the Embree era that it would be at least until 2013 season before we saw a competitive team and now even that is looking to be a hopeful attitude.

§  That all being said there is a game to play this weekend and below is some info to prep you for the 6PM kickoff in Fresno where it is expected to over 100 degrees for kickoff and at least the first half.  I am not going to bother trying to tell you why the Buffs will win, because I just can’t buy it right now after the last two performances, especially since the most improvement is supposed to happen between the first and second games.  However…

§  … Ted Miller of the ESPN Pac12 Blog actually predicted that the Buffs would beat Fresno St. 28-27.  “Why? Because I suspect we're going to see some pride from the Buffs.”  His, however, is the only such prediction I have seen.

§  Burn the Redshirt! Four more true freshmen got their feet wet when CB Jeffrey Hall, DT Justin Solis and DEs John Stuart and Samson Kafovalu got their first action.  That brings the total to 13.  We could still see RB Terrence Crowder, and I wouldn’t be surprised if TE Austin Ray gets his shot some time soon.  On the d-line I also wouldn’t be surprised if Kory Rasmussen or someone else has to or gets to play. 

§  In addition, R-Fr. Brad Cotner, So. walk-on CB Richard Yates (special teams), and So. QB Wood also got on the field for the first time.

§  Game Captains Embree was expected to announce game captains weekly by Thursday but I haven’t seen or read anything yet.  I do like that Jr. LB Derrick Webb called a players only meeting after practice this week-it certainly can’t hurt-and he will likely head out to the coin toss.  Not sure if anyone but true freshman Christian Powell, maybe P Darragh O’Neill, have earned the right.

§  Depth Chart moves: Kirk Poston’s stay atop the depth chart at left DE was short-lived as Sr. Wil Pericak was shifted outside (he has played there some before) to make room for massive frosh Josh Topou, who is now starting alongside Nate Bonsu. 

§  We also know that QB Connor Wood will play at least a series or two and it hasn’t been announced how they will shuffle on the offensive line (more on both below).  I would be surprised if there weren’t some other significant change somewhere in the lineup.

§  Injuries: It doesn’t look like any of the injured players will play against Fresno St. - C Gus Handler, S Ray Polk, LB Doug Rippy, CB Greg Henderson.  Everyone else associated with the program is suffering from a severely damaged ego.

When the Bulldogs have the ball:

§  Fresno St. is going to come after the Buffs.  They have an NFL caliber QB in Derek Carr who loves to throw downfield, as well as a decent RB in Robbie Rouse, who is poised to become the school’s all-time rushing leader.  They also run the zone option read, which has given the Buffs and Greg Brown trouble for years (think Hawaii).  What Fresno St. has seen on film is not scaring them as there are certainly enough holes and mistakes for them to exploit.

§  On top of that, for the second week in a row, the Buffs will open defensively with four true freshmen starters, including three in the secondary-Crawley, Wright (will start again for Henderson) and Moseley (who is starting nickel with Orms at Polk’s safety spot), plus Topou at DT.  While this will continue to be scary as hell, it probably does put the best 11 on the field, and hopefully will make the three young speedsters and the huge rock decent players for the next three years.  There will definitely be some more growing pains though.

§  Sr. Wil Pericak has to do some more learning on the fly at DE, but could make the line more formidable playing opposite Chidera Uzo-Diribe with Bonsu and Topou in the middle. True frosh Justin Solis and Tyler Henington are the backups (whose play also helped facilitate Pericak’s move outside) on the inside.  However, there may often only be one DT on the field with dime packages in passing situations, especially with Pericak out there. The DE backups Poston and So. Juda Parker, who has played relatively sparingly (surprising and disappointing as he was expected to be cornerstone of that first class and is now the fourth DE), and T-Fr. Samson Kafovalu has also played a little.  This group has got to get more pressure on the QB and slow down the running game.  While there have been a few sacks, the big plays are way to infrequent, and this group is still probably the weakest group on the squad (and that is saying a lot right now).

§  The LBs continue to be the strength of the team but they are doing a lot of rotating and have not reached their potential.  Webb has been a beast at times, but is not on the field for many groupings.  Brady Daigh has looked great with his time and I think we will see more and more of him, even when Rippy is healthy.  Jon Major, because of his experience, is getting the most plays but has not been very impressive, when he was supposed to be a leader of this group and the entire defense.  Kyle Washington (actually got the start last week) and Paul Vigo are in for the nickel and dime packages.

§  Neither safety, Jrs. Parker Orms or Terrell Smith, were nearly as effective as they have been when Ray Polk is also in the game.  They can play a little more freely when he is directing everyone else and covering their backs.  Without him the freshmen were left to fend for themselves a lot more and we paid for it.  Derek Carr will continue to test these young guys. We will probably see some of Jered Bell and T-Fr Jeffrey Hall could get his first defensive action.  [I expect that some of the DBs who have fallen far on the depth chart will quietly leave the program in the offseason, opening up a couple of scholarships.]

§  By the way, both late pass interference calls were correct!  You are going to get called every time when you put your hand on a receiver’s back as you reach around to hit the ball, especially when you are right in front of a ref.  Crawley never should have gotten the second PI call because Brown should have gotten all over his DBs about that after Moseley was flagged for the first one.

§  I must add: I hate the %&*@&$ “prevent” defense!  On the last Sac St.drive (is “stroll down the field” more appropriate?) they had seven defensive backs with Jered Bell coming in; they spread out all over the field and gave the receivers huge cushions, making it easy to complete 8-10 yard passes.  Where are the LBs who are the strength of the team?  There was absolutely no pressure on Saffron, who sat back and played catch with his buddies.  Another example of how the coaches have not put this team in situations where it can be successful.

§  This defense certainly has its work cut out for the rest of the season, as teams will be salivating over game film of the young secondary and frankly weak defensive line.  The LBs must figure out their rotation and be the solid center the defense needs and make enough plays to shield the DBs from getting killed.  The mantra is to try not to get blown out by the powerhouse offense they will face every week.

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  I don’t even know what to make of the QB situation, which is murky at best.  Embree has said that Jordan Webb (who has not thrown an interception-look a positive!) will start, but that Connor Wood, who is the number two this week, will come in the third or fourth series to get some work.  Allegedly, this has nothing to do with Webb’s shaky outings so far, just that the team suddenly feels that their backup needs a little PT.  For all we know they could be bringing Hirschman in, since they like to be tricky behind closed doors (“no huddle”, Christian Powell at TB-more below). I guess we will just have to wait and see.

§  The wide receivers are just not that great.  Embree has said that the team has had to overhaul the secondary and d-line and that wide receivers are still an area of need, and it has shown. Nelson Spruce can be a good possession guy but he was pretty ineffective against Sac St.  Similar story for Tyler McCulloch, who has rarely been able to take advantage of his height.  Gerald Thomas is definitely a possible answer to line up across from P-Rich the next two years, but he is still very raw; even so, they need to continue to find ways to get the ball into his hands.  All of those guys have had at least one bad drop as well.  Ebner takes up a slot in multiple sets but has yet to do much of anything.  Keenan Canty, DaVaughn Thorton, Jarrod Darden can’t even get on the field after that, which shows how weak they really are.  If the two greyshirts were healthy and present, they would most certainly be playing. [I would guess that there are a couple in this group who are not back next year either.]

§  While seeing a big, bruising running back barreling down Folsom Field was exhilarating, Christian Powell had never before carried the ball more than 10 times in a game and got 28 for 147 yards and 3 TDs against Sacramento St. (the best positive of the week). However, he was extremely sore during the week and no matter how tough and strong he is, he can’t withstand that much work for an entire season.  Bienemy said he was going to get Donta Abron and maybe Terrence Crowder some work but we only saw Abron on the field for a few plays, so maybe this is the week.  They also tried a few snaps each with Tony Jones, DD Goodson and even Josh Ford, but without any success or any of them getting any rhythm.  Where the heck is Malcolm Creer?  He has shown some great flashes, mainly before the injury, but has not gotten a lot of chances and none against Sac St.  EB has to decide who is his number two and even the carries out with Powell’s.  Goodson is not the answer as he is too small.  If Josh Ford has broken through by now then I doubt he ever will. It’s got to be now or never for Tony Jones who is rapidly slipping down the depth chart.

§  It has not yet been announced how the team will replace Gus Handler this week.  R-Fr. C Brad Cotner could just come in, but it will probably beDaniel Munyer could shift over from G with Jack Harris going from T to G and Ryan Dannewitz coming in at tackle. Or, massive R-Fr. OT Stephane Nembot might even make his offensive line debut.  This group has got to show some major improvement in all phases.  Anything is possible at this point I guess, especially since the line has been most disappointing. [Steve Marshall is the coach with the most on the line the rest of the season and is a very possible scapegoat when it is all said and done.  Supposedly Mike Bohn is not all that happy and at the very least I think he will (quietly) ask Embree to make some coaching changes.  Wisconsin already canned their o-line coach after 2 games.]

§  It was nice to (see! I am really trying to be positive!) see the TEs contributing a little at least.  So. Kyle Slavin finally grabbed his first career catch for a TD, and T-Fr. Vincent Hobbs and Sr. Nick Kasa also each caught a ball.  However, this position has to help out the quarterback a lot more, no matter who it is, by getting open over the middle, giving him some blocking and being there as a dump off guy when the play breaks down.  Hobbs is the future here, once he learns how to get a little better separation from the defender and a little stronger with his blocks.

§  I can only hope that they scrap the no huddle for now at least, since no one seems to understand their roles well enough to implement it.

§  I also like Ash Jackson’s call (of Ralphie Report) to have Bienemy on the field to get the feel of the game and add some fire to the sidelines; he points out that Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech, among others, have done it before.

Special Teams:

§  This has actually been a strength of the team so far, not because it has been spectacular, but because it hasn’t been awful. A little improvement could make this a decent unit, and it looks like at least the punt team and kickoff return groups are going to get a lot of work.  Even more speed would be welcome from future recruits if at all possible.

§  P Darragh O’Neill has a great average (16th nationally at 45.58), although he could continue to improve his height and hang time. 

§  K Wil Oliver hasn’t missed in his limited work.  They have both been solid as hoped (nothing can be expected with this team).  Even though KOA never caught on, backup P Zack Grossnickle took over holder duties from Justin Gorman in the Sac St. game.

§  Overall, coverage has been pretty good as well with only one big return given up.

§  Justin Castor was replaced by Oliver on kickoffs late in the Sac St. game so we will see how that develops.

§  Crawley has been better than expected (fumble notwithstanding) with more punt return yardage already than we had all of last year.

§  Likewise, Moseley and Abron have been decent on kickoff returns.  They have to know when to go for it and when to just take the 25-yard line (which is probably most of the time). This area should hopefully get a little better as the year goes on. 

§  Overall, the Buffs just need to show some pride.  I don’t expect them to win at this point, but I would love to see them compete, and not blow it at every crucial moment.  Although this team has taken early leads in both losses, they have not been able to keep up the intensity nor counter the moves made by the opposition.  Someone, somewhere needs to step up before this thing gets ugly (but I am not holding my breath).

§  If you really feel you need some more:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2012/t-i-p-s-for-cufresno-state/

Plati’s CU Game Notes:  http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/fsu12/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600

Fresno St. Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/fsu12/fsunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600