Arizona St. Sun Devil Blackout Preview

While the Buffs limped into their first bye week ever under Embree, reeling from a much lower than expectations 1-4 start, their next opponent cruised into their week off on the opposite end of the spectrum, having surpassed all but the most optimistic preseason prognostications at 4-1.  This will be a Blackout game, the crowd and team dressed in all black, including helmets, under the Thursday night Folsom Field lights, with CU hosting the South Division leading Arizona St. Sun Devils, led by new coach Todd Graham.  This is part of the new Pac-12 TV deal that has them airing conference matchup almost every Thursday evening for a national TV audience on ESPN (with most teams getting a bye week before, allowing for two longer weeks in preparation and recovery for this and the following game, although ASU will host Oregon next week before getting their second mini-bye).  CU is actually undefeated on Thursday night games (USC was on a Friday last year), having beaten Stanford in 1990 and West Virginia in 2008.  The Buffs are 23-point underdogs but they do have to play the game.

§  Game Captains: It now appears that Embree and the team have settled on Sr. DE/DT Wil Pericak, Sr. S Ray Polk, Jr. LT David Bahktiari and Jr.LB Derrick Webb as captains, as they have walked out together the last three games and each has been a captain for four of the first five games.

§  Depth Chart moves/Injuries: Players returning from injury could have a huge impact on this game.  Although they had as many as 12 guys who probably would not have played last Saturday had there been a game, Embree said they should be as healthy as they have been since they opened the season.  The most anticipated return from injury in a long time is finally near: Sr. S Ray Polk is finally close to being recovered from his severe high ankle sprain against csu (they were leading 14-3 at the time and the defense probably doesn't play nearly as badly with him in there, then who knows what could have happened…?) Along with the return of LB Doug Rippy, the defense should be bolstered quite a bit.

§  As of Tuesday, most everyone is listed as probable or day-to-day.  RB Christian Powell is one who may not be able to go with a deep hip bruise suffered early against UCLA.  T-Fr. DT Justin Solis is also not sure if he will play. C Gus Handler should also be good to go, but it is unclear if he has lost his job to Daniel Munyer, or who will start on the other two right slots.  Everyone else will have had a few extra days (and will also get a few more after this game before the trip to LA) to heal up nagging bumps, bruises and other injuries. 

§  I am also curious to see if there are any other surprises with a few extra days of practice to get someone ready.

§  From Plati’s “Obscure Stat of the Week”: A total of 21 freshmen have played in the first five games, 13 by true frosh. But a more telling number are the play counts, especially on defense. While freshmen (all true) have accounted for only 12 starts defensively, they have played 1,031 snaps, or just over 25 percent of all the plays on defense. Seniors have accounted for just 602 snaps (14.8 percent), while juniors have seen the most action (1,662 plays, or 40.8 percent). Sophomores have thus played 775 snaps, so underclassmen have been in for 1,806 plays (44.4 percent). CB Kenneth Crawley has seen the most action (362 snaps), with four other frosh playing 145 snaps or more.

§  Here’s some scary stats from Stuart (see more below): “Arizona State is first in the Pac-12 in pass defense, total defense, scoring defense, sacks, and tackles for loss…Colorado, meanwhile, has fallen below the college football Mendoza line (100th or worse) in no fewer than eight categories, including rushing offense, total offense, scoring offense, pass defense, total defense and scoring defense.”  I love the “Mendoza line”, although not being so strongly connected with it.

§  He also points out that ASU comes right back next Thursday to play Oregon and the best thing we have going for us is that they could be looking ahead a little.  I also listened to an ASU podcast (hey, I spend a lot of time walking the dogs) and they acted as if a win over the Buffs is a sure thing, probably talking more about Oregon than CU.  It’s kinda sad but their overconfidence could be our best hope.

When the Sun Devils have the ball:

§  ASU has put up a lot of yards (456.2/game) and points (38.4) and is yet another team that should enjoy watching game film of the CU defense, licking their chops in preparation for the game.   They run a fast paced zone option read with a lot of misdirection that puts a lot of pressure on defenses. They also start strong, outscoring opponents 56-10 in the first quarter.  The Buffs defense has to stick to their assignments and tackle well.  They certainly can’t afford to start out slow in this one or it will be Fresno St. again.

§  The defense supposedly worked heavily on tackling during their few extra days of practice so we will see if it makes any difference against another offense that will spread them out and force each defender to cover their assignment and wrap up.  When one guy whiffs, it too often leads to a big play for the opponents.

§  ASU has been very efficient, and they have not committed a turnover in Pac-12 play (only 2 games but…).  They are extremely good on first down, running the ball two-thirds of the time but are very effective (not obvious) when they choose to pass instead.  Greg Brown will be on his toes all night, trying to keep up with this offense.

§  The Sun Devils have three young QBs that would probably start for the Buffs were they on this roster.  So. Taylor Kelly, who is leading the Pac-12 in passing efficiency, surprisingly won the job, but R-Fr. Michael Eubank plays some to keep himself sharp and Kelly fresh; So. Mike Bercovici also has talent, but can’t get on the field with the other two there.

§  Whoever is lined up behind center has a lot of solid targets to throw the ball to, including TE Chris Coyle (26-338 yards, 2 TDs) and 4 receivers averaging at least 40 yards per game.

§  ASU has a three-pronged rushing attack, led by strong experienced back in Cameron Marshall, although he has not fared that well the past few games; speedy frosh DJ Foster has gained the most yards from scrimmage and Marion Grice has been a total surprise.  They will likely look to get those three involved early in order to regain their early season rushing form and rest their defense a little.

§  Everyone on the Buffs D has its work cut out for them.  Each group needs to execute, cover their assignment and wrap up when they get a hand on the ball carrier.  If Ray Polk and Doug Rippy are indeed back, then they need to show their stuff and lead the defense from the get go.  Any rustiness from them or an early miscue from someone else, and this offense could steamroll this defense.

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  The Sun Devil defense has started the same 11 each week (although their depth is very thin with a few offensive players moving to defense), is a generally experienced group of mostly juniors and seniors, and leads the conference in scoring defense, having only given up 13.6 points per game through five games (that’s 68 total points, about what Fresno St. put on us in one game).  By the way, in case you were wondering, CU’s offense is last in the conference in scoring, with only 21.6 per game.

§  DE Will Sutton is a beast that has been driving opposing offenses crazy during the beginning of the season, wreaking a ton of havoc in the backfield with 6.5 sacks and a few more TFL. We will be sick of hearing his name called and seeing his #90 in our offensive backfield.  A little undersized for even an end at 6’ 2, 270 pounds, he has an incredibly quick first step and will need to be accounted for every play by Jordan Webb and the entire line, as well as the TEs and RBs, who will be chipping him often.  And if he isn’t problem enough, DEs Carl Bradford (4.5) and Junior Onyeali (4) have combined for 9 ½ more sacks.  They will show all kinds of looks and blitz anyone from anywhere.  If you were curious, CU is giving up an average of 4.4 sacks per game.

§  ASU Sr. LB Brandon Magee leads the team in tackles and is the leader of the defense, controlling the middle of the field like a solid middle LB should.  We could be sick of his name and number as well.

§  However, their one chink in the armor has been the run game, giving up almost 140 yards a game.  The Buffs would do well to attack them on the ground, hopefully mix in some play action with a few surprises, and keep with it, even if they struggle a little early.  It will likely be Powell first (if he plays), followed by some Jones, and I would expect a small dose of a third back, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether that is Ford, Abron or whatever happened to Creer?

§  QB Jordan Webb needs to make smart, quick decisions and not take sacks or at least not so many hits.  They supposedly have worked to improve their timing and chemistry on (especially RB) screen plays, that Tyler Hansen and Rodney Stewart were so successful at completing for big yards, but that Webb, Jones and the others have not taken advantage of so far this year.

§  Webb has come out of each game for at least a play.  If he needs to be relieved for any reason this week it should be Connor Wood coming into the game.

§  Interestingly, the Sun Devils have five players who have moved from offense to defense in the past few months, including a few in the secondary, with a few playing quite a bit, especially in nickel and dime packages.  This is another area the Buffs might be able to go after a little, but they will need to do so on quick plays and routes, as Webb likely won’t have much time to sit back and scan the field.

§  The offensive line will have its job cut out for it though, and we don’t know exactly who will be joining Bahktiari and Lewis from the left side.  It sounds like Handler will play; it also has seemed like they want to see more of Nembot, so does that mean that Munyer or Harris is the odd man out?  So far, this group has given up the second highest number of sacks in the nation.

§  The pedestrian wide receiver corps needs more plays and might be aided by some unexpected help.  Tony Jones lined up as a wideout a few times against UCLA and will likely do so in the future.  DD Goodson, who is small for quick and shifty, could also get a shot. With five games under their belts and a bye week to prepare, maybe this can be the breakout week for one of the true frosh, WR Gerald Thomas and/or TE Vincent Hobbs (only four games), who is the fastest TE.

§  The Buffs have not been able to make the big plays with only a few  to date, with Tony Jones’ 84-yard TD (WSU) and Christian Powell’s 64-yarder (Sac St.) the only runs; the wide receivers have only had one catch of over 35 yards between them; the TEs have provided a few big plays, including Kasa’s 70-yarder; overall though, especially in the explosive Pac-12, with a young defense and a weak offensive line that cannot sustain drives, the Buffs (read: Bienemy!) need to figure out a way to make some big plays, preferably early.  They have tried a few creative things with Gerald Thomas, but teams know he is really our only speed guy and have been able to stop him fairly well. 

§  They have also been awful on third down, converting only 2 of 15 vs. UCLA and 25-77 (32%) on the season.  They have a really high number of three-and-outs, and have trouble converting really important 3^rd downs, which has persuaded them to go for it quite a few times fourth down, I think partly due to Embree’s annoyance that they didn’t get the job done on third.  This comes down to playcalling and execution.

§  One area of possible strength for the offense has been red zone conversion, scoring on 12 or 14 trips inside the 20 (85.7%), with 11 touchdowns.  Of course, that is less than 3 trips in the red zone per game, without many big plays to supplement the scoring.

§  My first play call:[This assumes the services of Christian Powell, although he wouldn’t even have to be 100.] Lineup in Jumbo 3TE formation, Scott Fernandez outside RT, with Kasa covering him, and Slavin outside Bahktiari on the left, with Powell at TB and Wood at FB.  There is so much talk about ASU being weak in the rush defense and the Buffs needing to establish the run, sell the whole play as a handoff to Powell over the right side, but play action to Fernandez, who is known as a blocker, who can chip and quickly peel off.  The LBs should definitely bite, and if a safety does and Scottie catches it…he’ll probably be tackled, but for a decent gain.  Second play? Basically the same thing but switch Kasa over to the left and actually run that way.  I’ll let EB take it from there.

Special Teams:

§  ASU’s kickers have not been that good, hitting barely 50% of their FGs.  However, teams haven’t relied on FGs that much against the Buffs, getting into the endzone more often than not (literally).  Wil Oliver actually gives CU a slight edge in this area.

§  MVP (Most Valuable Punter at the very least) Darragh O’Neill also has the edge of his counterpart, no matter who it is, based on sheer raw leg strength (technique is still to be questioned quite a bit but the result is generally affective) and tenacity covering his kicks.  Plus, CU is actually ranked 36^th in the country in net punting (I believe their highest national ranking in any major team statistic category).

§  Arizona St. has a good weapon in their P Josh Hubner, who is adept at pinning the ball deep inside the 20, having done it 10 times already this year, after 24 last season.  QB Taylor Kelly has also hit three nice pooch kicks (one for 40 yards) that have landed inside the 20.

§  ASU’s punt coverage has been shaky, giving up a lot of return yardage, even though their punter has a solid 45+ average.  Maybe this is Crawley’s big stage to finally break one.

§  A big play here would really help boost the team and the evening crowd, but I would definitely settle for solid play, not giving up and big plays and just keeping the field position battle close.

§  Overall, the Buffs are really young and inexperienced, and not really that talented, and therefore a very reasonable 23 point underdog.  They must have more than a few things (turnovers, bounces, calls, weird plays) go their way to win this game.  It happened in the last seven minutes at WSU so I guess anything is possible.  Let’s pull out all our black attire and fill the stadium with loud Buff fans to keep the stadium rocking from Ralphie’s run all the way to the end of the game!

§  If you are a glutton for punishment, here’s a little more for you:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2012/coloradoarizona-state-preview/

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/asu12/cunotes.pdf?SPSID=3843&SPID=255&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=600

Arizona St. Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/asu12/cunotes.pdf?SPSID=3843&SPID=255&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=600

House of Sparky ASU Preview-we can only hope the preface is true (make sure you click on the “this” link and may the force be with you): http://www.houseofsparky.com/2012/10/8/3471852/asu-football-opponent-first-look-colorado-buffaloes