The Colorado
Buffaloes sit at 1-5, following two straight home blowout losses to mid-level
Pac-12 teams. Now, they go on the road to the two top teams, the two most
talented teams, the two fastest teams in the conference. Amusingly, the Buffs are still riding a
two-game conference road winning streak that should abruptly come to an end by early
in the first half. USC is a 40 to 41
point favorite, which might be hard to actually cover, but it’s hard to argue
with that, and I don’t think I could put any money on it, even getting so many
points. [Note: Whatever I write this
week about the prospects of the Buffs against USC, just change a few names, add
a few “even faster”s, and you will have the preview for Oregon the following
week.]
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Burn the
Redshirt: They won’t be burning Terrence Crowder’s redshirt as he tore his
ACL again in practice and is done for the year.
Although it is doubtful they will play any more true frosh, those who
have played are likely to play more.
Marques Mosley started again at safety with a nickel package and got his
first sack, DE Samson Kafovalu got his first start, CB Kenneth Crawley
continues to play well, we should see more and more of DTs Tyler Henington and
Justin Solis (when healthy), CBs Yuri Wright and Jeff Hall, of course RB
Christian Powell when he is healthy, and I would love to see more Donta
Abron. They tend to go to WR Gerald
Thomas and TE Vincent Hobbs with a few designed plays early, but they have
disappeared after that the last few weeks.
§
I love the fact that true frosh starting CB Kenneth Crawley called out the team because
he thought some of his defensive comrades quit on the last ASU touchdown
drive. I didn’t see this drive as I was
exiting the stadium in disgust, but I do not doubt his assessment, although
Embree attributed it more to the shock of seeing LB Brady Daigh get carted off
the field. Regardless, we are
looking at a four-year starter at corner and future captain of this team.
§
Injuries:
There were a ton of injuries leading up to and during last week’s game
including: LB Brady Daigh is sore but probable for this game!? TB/FB Christian
Powell is also probable; DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe played through and ankle sprain
and LT David Bahktiari did something to his lower leg during the ASU game but
neither are listed on the injury report; LB Doug Rippy played some but was not
really effective, is “full go” for USC; I don’t think that LB Jon Major is
100%; DE Samson Kafovalu, who got his first start against ASU also
hyper-extended his elbow and is listed
as day-to-day, as is DT Justin Solis (concussion) , pass defense LBs Paul Vigo (foot)
and Kyle Washington (concussion) are
questionable and doubtful resepctively, and CB Yuri Wright is also questionable
with his concussion. There may be a few
more whose families have not signed the waiver form allowing the team to report
on injuries.
Ray Polk is obviously the biggest
question mark still (did you think I forgot about him?). We thought he was going to be ready to go for
ASU, but he was not in pads. He is
listed as questionable again, but says he definitely will play, although he is
not 100% he feels he can still “help the team out.” If he is actually pretty close to being full
go then his return is huge for the defense and the secondary, just making sure
guys are in the right spots pre-snap and making minor in-game adjustments he
should be even better at observing from all his film study in the time off. {Just a thought: If Polk still hadn’t been ready this week, could CU have pursued a
medical 6th year redshirt and brought him back next year with
P-Rich?}
§
Game
Captains: Pericak, Polk, Bahktiari, D. Webb will remain as captains. There is no one else who deserves any
recognition, and even these four are questionable at this point. Except of course, team MVP, P Darragh O’Neill,
to whom I would personally award a scholarship, and then send him out to do the
coin flip alone.
§
Depth
Chart moves: T-Fr. DE Samson Kafovalu got his first start, mainly because
Chidera was originally listed as “out” (their situations are reversed this
week). Gus Handler was back at center but
the offensive line still seems an obvious place to make some changes and play
some younger guys like RT Stephane Nembot, or even G Jeromy Irwin, since they
already burned his redshirt. S Jered
Bell didn’t play nearly as much as the last two games, with Mosley taking more
snaps in the nickel packages.
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The Buffs boast 14 Southern California natives who
play or are on the two-deep, plus a handful more across their roster, very few
of whom were recruited much by USC.
However, a lot of potential future recruits will be on hand for this
game in general, or at least watching it. The Greater Los Angeles area is still one of the team’s
biggest recruiting areas.
§
It hasn’t been the Buffs’ best quarter either,
but the Trojans have been awful in the third period, getting outscored
43-14. If CU manages somehow to keep it
close (although the game should be over by halftime), the third quarter will be
huge, especially since, outside of the Stanford game, USC’s defense in
particular, has been stellar in the fourth.
§
USC is also worse with penalties, averaging ten
per game, mostly by offensive line and special teams with some delays of
game. CU is only averaging 6.5, and I
must admit that they have not been as bad in this area, especially as the
Pac-12 refs have made some very questionable calls.
If
you didn’t get to read it in this morning’s Camera, here is Kyle Ringo’s take
on how Colorado could actually win this game: http://www.buffzone.com/cu-news/ci_21813194/football-everything-has-go-right-cu-buffs-beat
When the Trojans have the ball:
§
Although so far they have not been other-worldly
as some expected, the USC offense will have a chance to get itself on track
against the Buffs. [These next three
sentences can just transfer to next week with different names to plug in.] They
will gain a lot of yards and score a lot of points. They have some of the best and fastest
players in the country on offense. Google them if you want more info, but we
will hear all about them while they are kicking extra points and waiting to
kickoff: QB Matt Barkley, WRs Marquise Lee and Robert Woods, RBs Curtis McNeal
and Silas Redd, TE Xavier Grimble.
§
Although the passing game has not been nearly as
explosive as expected, the run game, especially of late has been very solid for
the Trojans. However, their receivers
are the best group we have seen yet and I would be surprised if Barkley
and Co. did not have a big day.
§
The CU secondary gets a lot of bad press, and
although they are not that good (much of
this can be attributed to the absence of Ray Polk), the defensive line and pass
rush give the opposing QB way too much time to find receivers. If Matt Barkley has as much time as Taylor
Kelly did, then he will have no problem getting four TDs to break Mat Leinart’s
school record, and could probably get it in the first half.
§
Our CBs and safeties are our leading tacklers,
meaning the boys up front are not getting enough themselves. Kenneth Crawley has especially been counted
on to do a lot, covering fast receivers, but still being one of the leading
tacklers on the team. I think safeties
Parker Orms and Terrell Smith are also both up there in tackles.
§
DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe will likely attack a lot
from the right side as left tackle is USC’s weakest offensive line link, having
to replace All-American Matt Kalil with a rotation of true sophomore Audrey
Walker and true frosh Max Tuerk, who was heavily recruited by Colorado. Chidera should have a few eye-opening plays
if he is healthy, but offenses can account for him and no one else is getting
much push or pressure through the trenches.
He has also been much more effective during the first half, much less so
in the second after the opposing offense has had a chance to adjust.
§
I am sure that CU defensive coaches have
addressed the fact the fact USC players are very close to two records and are
expecting to reach the this weekend so they do it at home. WR Robert Woods only needs five catches to
become the all-time leader while his QB, Matt Barkley, needs four TDs to
surpass Matt Leinart’s 99. It is hard to
imagine them not getting both records (Barkley threw for SIX last year in
Boulder). I suppose if they get a few
long runs and/or return TDs, Barkley could end up with only three passing.
§
USC is actually not that effective on third
down, converting only about 30%, actually last in the Pac-12 (so I guess CU is
not last in every category that doesn’t include “punting” in the title) and 112th
in the FBS.
§
Regardless, the CU defense will be tested
constantly, with basic runs, lots of long passes, and I would expect SC to try
a screen pass or two just to see what happens.
Limiting the Trojan offense to fewer points than Fresno St. would have
to be considered a success.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§
The Trojan defense was expected to be the weak
link of the team, but instead have been the strength. They did return quite a few experienced
players with NFL talent, including S TJ McDonald and CB Nickell Robey (both on
Thorpe Award List) as well as LB Dion Bailey and DE Morgan Breslin. I don’t see how Jordan Webb and the CU
offense can do a whole lot, unless some crazy shit happens. [Same prospects
against Oregon.]
§
They are 22nd in the country in sacks
(Breslin has 7 sacks, 12 TFL), while CU is dead last in sacks allowed-ouch!
§
It should be scary and ugly and I wouldn’t be
surprised at all to see a back up QB, either because Webb sucks so bad, Webb
gets knocked out of the game, or the score is so out of hand. The biggest question on the offense is
probably who comes in when, not if, one of those three things occurs. [I can use that part next week again, unless
Webb is out injured or loses the job.] Each of the last few weeks, Connor Wood
has been announced as the number two, but Nick Hirschman has been the one to
come into games since the three of them played in the Fresno St. game.
§
The CU coaches have simplified their game plan
big time. [Don’t think I can use that
again because they can’t make it any simpler.]
That may be one of the reasons so many plays are blown up behind the
line of scrimmage. Even if they have
made it basic to improve execution, EB still needs to mix up the plays somewhat
so the defense doesn't know what’s coming and then maybe Webb and the RBs will
have a little time and space to make things happen. Embree said they will focus
on offense a little more during this mini-bye, as their ineptitude might be the
biggest reason our defense suffers so much late in the game with so many
three-and-out series.
§
Since Bienemy took over the offense, they have
played 19 games and have scored 14 or 17 points in about half those games (9),
plus three more in single digits, including the offensive-less deuce against
Oregon. They have only scored 24 or more
7 times. Average points per game over
that span? Not even three touchdowns at 20.1.
Opponents are averaging…let’s just say a lot more than that.
§
If the offensive line could give Jordan Webb a
little time he might be able to hit some passes over the middle against the
Monte Kiffin soft zone Tampa-2. However,
he will need some time to make the right reads, and he is not that great at
leading his receivers on the crosses, which is what will be often needed.
§
O-line “coach” Steve Marshall did say that R-Fr.
Stephane Nembot will play some at USC. I
don’t know if that means that he will be part of a planned rotation at RT, or
if Marshall is just assuming that Nembot and many other backups will be playing
in the second half.
§
The Trojans will probably have an extra eye on
TE Nick Kasa, who has put together two nice statistical games in a row (11
catches for 239 yards and 3 TDs in last 3 games), and has gained some positive
national attention for the Buffs, being named to the Mackey Award (best TE)
Midseason Watch List.
§
If TEs Vincent Hobbs, Kyle Slavin and DaVaughn
Thorton could get into the game plan some more, it would help Kasa. It would be interesting to see them throw a
bunch out of three TE formations.
§
It would be a nice time for T-Fr. WR Gerald Thomas
to finally break one. He has been close
a few times, but has dropped a couple, Webb has been behind him a few times and
he has just not quite been able to get through the seam when he has caught it.
§
I would expect USC to load the box, shut down
whatever run game we try to muster, and dare Webb to pass against their
talented, fast secondary. Our receivers are way too slow and won’t pose a
problem even with straight up man coverage.
Nor will our TEs be able to do much against their safeties or
linebackers. [This likely is exactly how we can expect an “even faster” team to
attack our meager offense as well.]
§
The Buffs actually do rank 27th
nationally in one positive offensive category, converting 15-17 (88%) redzone
opportunities, for second in the conference.
Unfortunately, I am guessing that their paltry 17 trips (less than three
per game) is among the lowest rankings in both the Pac-12 and country.
§
Basically, we are just hoping to avoid a
shutout. [Same goal next week.]
Special Teams:
§
P Darragh O’Neill, team MVP (20th in
punting yardage in nation, although only 4th in Pac-12). Say no more [although I will say this again
next week and down the line].
§
Okay, a little more: Kickoff coverage is now
dead freakin’ last in the nation (120th) after that ridiculous
return for a TD by ASU to open the second half.
§
Overall, this should be a
massacre. The Buffs have never beaten
the Trojans (0-6) and there is little or no reason to think they can break that
trend this weekend. Hopefully, there
will be no records shattered and no major injuries. [Again, the first and last line of this
little bullet section can probably stay exactly the same next week.]
§
If you truly think you can handle a little more:
Stuart’s
TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2012/coloradousc-preview/
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/usc12/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
USC Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/usc12/uscnotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
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