This
game is the Battle for the Conference Basement as each team is listed last in
every divisional rankings, the two teams flip flop between the 11th
and 12th spot for any full conference rankings, and they are often
ranked 11/12 in most conference statistical rankings as well. These two programs have combined to lose 26
consecutive conference games (CU in midst of 14 game losing streak, Cal at 12,
with both teams’ last win coming against Washington St. last season). There are not a whole lot of nice things to
say. It should be an ugly, high-scoring
affair with numerous big plays and blunders.
§ Line: The Buffs opened as 3 point favorites,
basically just the typical home field advantage, and nothing more. Not sure
what the over/under is, but I would lean heavily on the over.
§ Roster Notes: I don’t think we will see
too many more surprises the rest of the way in terms of who plays, except due
to injury. What might be telling is
which veterans do not play as much down the stretch and then decide to leave
the program in the offseason-no inside info or any names, but I would actually
expect 3 or 4 to do just that.
§ Injuries: No new injuries reported.
P-Rich all but admitted on Twitter that he probably shouldn’t have played, but
hopefully he is a go this week (remember his last game against Cal at Folsom?).
§ LB
Woodson Greer had a stinger last week and was still not cleared late in the
week. This is not that big of a deal as
Derrick Webb can obviously team with Gillam in the nickel (and they might not
even use a base defense in this one),
§ S
Parker Orms also suffered a stinger in the Washington game and is
questionable. If he can’t go it means
Tedric Thompson would get the start and most of the playing time, but we might
also see some Marques Mosley. Both are
faster than Orms, just less experienced, although Orms is prone to stupid
mistakes anyway.
§ Could
this be the week that Josh Ford is available?
§ Cal
has struggled through a ton of injuries to a thin roster and the list is too
long for this space. They are playing a
ton of young players, and very few of their 4th and 5th
year players are contributing.
§ The
latest to be ruled out for Cal are LB Hardy Nickerson Jr. and RB Daniel Lasco. LB Khairi Fortt is questionable.
§ There
is one other so far yet-to-be-named Bear player who has been suspended from the
team for his role in a locker room fight that sent freshman RB Fabiano Hale to
the hospital.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ The
Cal defense is just plain awful. They
have also been decimated by injuries. Every
Bear opponent has scored at least 30 points, and they average giving up 46 in
conference. They are near the bottom
nationally in more defensive categories than CU last year. The Bear players have missed a ton of tackles
even when they are in position (sound familiar?). If Colorado can find a way to finish drives, Sefo
and the Buff offense should have their best day yet.
§ The
Bears’ strength, as it seems to be with every team in the conference, used to
be its linebackers, but they have been hit hard with injuries here, so the
middle of the field may be open. LB Khairi Fortt has been the leader of the
defense, but he too is banged up, missed last week and will be a game time
decision. Without him they go deep down
the depth chart and this is an area the Buffs can attack with the run game and
short passes.
§ Defensive
linemen Dan Camporeale and Deandre Coleman are the only Cal defensive players
who have played in all ten games and they clog the middle up and can get some
pressure on the QB.
§ If
the Buff offensive line can do a decent job, the Buffs will be able to move the
ball well. They need to eliminate stupid
penalties, bad snaps and missed blocks, especially by the seniors Harris and
Handler.
§ Then,
they need to work on cashing in TDs once they are inside the redzone!
§ RB
Michael Adkins should be 100%, and he and Christian Powell could both have big
days, as the Buffs will likely try to control the clock and limit how much the
Cal offense is on the field. A strong
running game will really open up the play-action passing game as well, forcing
them possibly also to leave P-Rich in single coverage.
§ This
could also be the game that Sefo holds on to the ball a little more often and
breaks a couple himself, as he has almost exclusively handed off to the RB so
far whenever they have run the zone read option.
§ P-Rich
had his breakout game the last time the Bears came to town for an unofficial
Pac12 game. He is technically listed as
day-to-day, but has said that he will play.
He will have the opportunity to have another big game and add to his 50+
yard touchdown total, as this defense has given up a lot of yards, big plays
and points through the air.
§ Cal
safety Michael Lowe is likely to be bracketing P-Rich over the top, but Sefo
will be looking to lead him over the middle and once he gets the ball with some
space, he is great with angles and using his blockers. I would be shocked, even with the bum ankle,
if he doesn’t add to his record number of 50 yards+ plays.
§ If
Sefo can continue to get other receivers involved, this offense could really
flourish. Nelson Spruce is usually good
for 5+ catches including a couple of key first downs, but few TDs. DD Goodson seems to have one big play a game,
but that is it. I am still waiting for
Devin Ross to break out. If Tyler
McCulloch doesn’t want to ride the bench his senior year, he had better do
something, because at least three more capable bodies join the shuffle next
year.
§ The
TEs should be a sneaky weapon at this point, since opponent might have
forgotten there were any on the roster. Dylan
Keeney, TE verbal, is solid on his commitment to the Buffs and eyeing some
playing time right away.
§ CalGoldenBlogs
does an extensive break down of Colorado offense, with formation snap shots and
comprehensive explanations: http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2013/11/14/5086074/colorado-buffaloes-mike-macintyre-paul-richardson-sefo-liufau
When the Bears have the ball:
§ This
“Bear Raid” offense will line up and run plays faster than Oregon-they lead the
nation on plays run with 894 (almost 90 a game). They know how to rack up a lot
of yards and most of it is through the air, averaging almost 60 passing
attempts per game. Their weakness, like
the Buffs, is converting once they move the ball into the redzone.
§ Therefore,
the CU defense’s job is simply to limit the points-they are going to give up
yards-and the really big plays.
Unfortunately, this probably means a lot of soft zone, Crawley lining up
way off his man, and a lot of short completions. They will therefore need to be
much better at wrapping up and bringing down the ball carrier; they practiced
harder in pads this week and should be much better prepared to tackle this
week.
§ The
Bears are led by true freshman QB Jared Goff, who is setting freshman passing records
all over the place. He has a bunch of
speedy receivers led by Chris Harper and former Buff recruiting target Bryce
Treggs. They will throw the ball at least 50 times, especially if the
Buff offense doesn’t control the clock on the ground, and will certainly test
the young secondary, but Goff is also prone to freshman mistakes. Ten different
guys have at least 100 receiving yards for them (CU has only four).
§ Everyone
on the defense, but especially the DBs, will have to step up their game and no
one can take a play off because they will lineup and throw it again very
quickly.
§ I
have a feeling that this will be a very big game for nickel back Chido
Awuzie. He is getting better in coverage,
but has also come just a fraction of a second late on a few blitzes.
§ Tedric
Thompson is likely to see more time at safety with his speed and Orms’
injury.
§ One
Cal blogger called Jered Bell the Buffs’ best defender, and I guess that could
be construed from the 4 INTs, but obviously has not watched much game
film. I don’t think that Cal or Goff is
scared of Bell and he is much more likely to give up a long TD than before he
gets another pick.
§ The
defensive line play is paramount and they should have some more success against
this o-line, which should totally help the secondary. Chidera: see note about not taking off a
play.
§ LB
Addison Gillam has gotten quieter as the season has rolled on. Defenses are now aware of him and he may be wearing
down just a little with the longer college season and more physical level of
play.
§ No
word yet on Woodson Greer, but if he plays, it will be alternating with Derrick
Webb, as I don’t think they will hardly ever be in their base defense with three
‘backers.
§ The
Bears play a few different running backs, but none of them have done a lot this
year, as the run game is secondary to the passing in this spread. With Lasco out, Daniel Bigelow will get the
most work, but they could use a few others as well.
Special Teams:
§ Cal
gave up three TDs on special teams last week against USC, two on returns and
one on block, so the Buffs have to make sure they win this battle (they also
gave up multiple return TDs against Oregon).
§ People
are jumping on the “replace Ryan Severson with someone faster” bandwagon after
a few fumbles, but I have been saying it all along.
§ Wil
Oliver has missed a few FGs lately after having been so stellar. Coaches don’t seem too concerned, but they
don’t seem to know the cause. A third
game with a bad or multiple misses would be cause for worry, although there is
no one else really. His kickoffs have
been pretty solid and deep. Diego
Gonzalez will definitely provide a stout challenge for Oliver next spring and
summer.
§ Long
snapper Ryan Iverson has been nominated for a second time for the Burlsworth
Trophy, given to the most outstanding collegiate football player who began his
career as a walk-on without any scholarship support.
§ Bottom
line, the Buffs should win this phase of the game.
Overall,
§ Both
sides know that this is their best chance for a win and each thinks they have
the advantage. This will just come down
to who makes the most plays and/or least mistakes. They just need to dig deep
and grab this game on their home field. I
think the game will test the collective hearts of Buff fans and go down to the
wire, but Colorado pulls it out late with a TD from an unexpected source (maybe
Devin Ross or Kyle Slavin) 43-39.
§ If
you want a little more:
Stuart’s
TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2013/cal-at-colorado-a-preview/
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/cal13/cunotes.pdf
Cal Game
Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/cal13/calnotes.pdf
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