The
Buffs dropped yet another heartbreaker in double overtime to UCLA at home and
must dig deep to leave that draining loss behind them for another possibly
winnable game against the Huskies.
Another team that has blown them out in recent meetings, Washington is
not nearly as potent on offense as years past but has a stout defense that has
found a way to score in almost every game.
This may be the last best chance for the Buffs to pick up a win as the
last three opponents are all ranked in the top 18 (@ #14 Arizona, @ #5 Oregon and
home against current #18 Utah) and playing well. However, UW is on a two-game losing streak
and is also definitely looking at CU as the easiest game left on their
schedule, although it should be noted that the Huskies have had streak of years
where they have lost three consecutive games.
The Buffs must come out firing and not get themselves in an early hole
as they have been prone to do, as this Husky defense will make it very
difficult to come back.
§ Line: It opened at Washington -4 , but
as it has every week, immediately jumped up to 5.5 with heavy betting on
whoever plays the Buffs, before settling back at 4.
§ Depth Chart moves: There were no major
shake-ups for the Buffs, but LB Brady Daigh again played very well in the
absence of Addison Gillam (flu, after saying he felt physically better than he
had all year).
§ Gerrad
Kough also filled in well for Kawai Crabb (concussion) at left guard.
§ Injuries:
§ A
scary moment in the first overtime period had S Tedric Thompson on the field
for several minutes before being loaded on a stretcher and carted off due to a
neck/head injury, although fortunately all tests turned up negative at the hospital.
I do not expect him to play this week.
§ Backup
safety Marques Mosley tore an ACL and is out for the rest of the season.
§ In
all, there are five CU players listed with concussions: Thompson. Crabb (still
day-to-day), S Terrell Smith (sustained late in UCLA game), plus CB Akhello
Witherspoon and RB Christian Powell, who are both expected to play this week.
§ Washington
has had a lot of injuries, but may be getting some guys back. Nickel safety Trevor Walker is out for the
season after tearing an ACL.
§ Their
top two RBs, Dwayne Washington and Lavon Coleman, have been banged up, but at
least Coleman is expected to be in the lineup against the Buffs. Last week, they moved arguably their best
defensive player, LB/S Shaq Thompson to RB and he immediately became their best
offensive player.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ The
Washington defense is what has kept them in games, slowing down effective
offenses, especially the run game, and they know how to get turnovers, having
created 16, scoring SIX touchdowns themselves this year (4 by Thompson). They will be the stiffest challenge yet for
the young Buffaloes, who should be able to find a few open spaces in the
passing game.
§ The
front seven is the heart of this defense, with a legion of stud linebackers-so deep
that they were able to lend out their best player, Shaq Thompson to the offense
(he did not play a defensive snap last week).
The question is how much, if any, will the playmaker line up on defense?
John Timu is also a beast and has 2 TDs of his own.
§ The
defensive line is led by all-everything DE Hau’oli Kikaha’s 14.5 sacks plus
line mate Danny Shelton has 7.5 of his own, and they both have 5 more tackles
for loss. The Buff o-line will be
challenged as well as Brian Lindgren’s (cringe) play calling.
§ While
the offensive line has gotten steadily better, giving up few sacks and
producing some limited space for runners, they are by no means blowing anyone away,
still struggling with short yardage and too often leaving Sefo to scramble and/or
take hits, even if they are not sacks.
If they could take a small step forward today, it would go a long way
towards helping their team win.
§ One
nice wrinkle the Buffs ran a few times against UCLA, twice with success, was a
double reverse that comes with a few options-pass down field, pass back to the
QB, just run it, and it looks like it has a triple reverse possibility as well. This could be something they use to bait
defenses in the future, starting this week with the aggressive Husky front
seven.
§ The
UW secondary is also solid, led by Marcus Peters, but they have shown some
kinks in the armor and can certainly be beaten.
Sefo will likely target whoever is early in his progression that is not
being covered by Peters.
§ Even
though the CU offense continues to set single season records, they have been
plagued with the same problems all year long-that is, Sefo’s inclination to
throw at least one head-scratching interception, their inability to pick up
short yardage first downs (mostly because Lindgren’s favorite play call in this
situation appears to be run into Alex Kelley’s back), and, now that teams have watched
film of the first few games, the receivers are not getting anything deep as
they did early. So, although they are
cranking out yards, and even points, in unprecedented numbers, they are still
not doing enough to win, which would be the worry this week against a stout
defense.
§ They
were able to get Nelson Spruce a few balls last week, but teams are aware of
him now. Sefo has been able to spread
the ball around some, with Bryce Bobo the main benefactor notching his first
two-TD day. If defenses have to worry
about Bobo as well, it could open things up even more for others like Shay
Fields. Sefo needs to eliminate the
horrible interception and limit both his bouncing underthrows and soaring
overthrows to the outside.
§ The
running game is finally starting to pick up and Michael Adkins had his best day
of the season. Powell was still out last
week and his bruising style might have helped out at times and is back for
Washington. Philip Lindsay and Tony
Jones both also had some nice plays last week.
In general, the Buffs are picking up small chunks of yardage and the
overall stats are solid, but no one in the group has been able to break a long
one yet, and they still have trouble picking up the tough yard when they need
it. Washington might be the best run D
they have faced, so this group may struggle as they did early in the year,
making it all the more important that Sefo can execute the passing game.
§ Sefo
has shown the ability to carry the ball and will likely have to make some plays
with his feet, both designed and impromptu. I would expect to see more
read-option here with all the RBs healthy and a difficult aggressive defense. Sefo’s decision making is crucial in handling
the ball, recognizing and not throwing into disguised coverage and making the
right call in the read option.
When the Huskies have the ball:
§ QB
Cyler Miles is expected to return after a concussion-he was listed as the
backup last week and was cleared but had not taken any reps during the
week. Even with him in the lineup, the
production has been lacking more often than not. WR John Ross is his favorite target and very
fast, but they also have Jaydon Mickens and a few other guys capable of
stretching the secondary.
§ The
Husky running backs committee has not been all effective and their best option
is also their best defensive player. We
will probably see a combination of Coleman, Deontae Cooper and some Shaq. Shutting this group down will force the still
young Miles to make plays or mistakes, and it could pull Thompson off of
defense.
§ The
CU defensive line is quietly improving, and Derek McCartney is blossoming into
a star, but the group is still giving up a lot of rushing yards and overall
points, and is still too often not getting sufficient pressure on the QB
without help, which allows him to complete the long pass against the tired
secondary, or just scramble as Hundley did to secure the overtime win for UCLA.
§ LB
Brady Daigh has played great every time he has had to come on for Addison
Gillam, who has struggled to stay healthy and is only a shell of his
All-everything freshman self, although he should be in the lineup this week. Kenneth Olugbode had arguably his best day in
a CU uniform last week and also needs to continue his play without the youthful
mistakes.
§ True
frosh Evan White is slated for his second start with all the safety
concussions, with John Walker or Akhello Witherspoon coming in at nickel. Look for Miles to test these White early, as well
as Witherspoon when he is in. Is this
the week we get to see what Yuri Wright can do?
§ Chidobe
Awuzie is starting to come into his own as a safety, still making the
occasional positional mistake, but making a lot of key, big hits for the
defense. He will need to have a big game,
preferably without the mistakes, especially without Thompson alongside.
Special Teams:
§ Wil Oliver had his best day booming every
kickoff deep into or out of the endzone and was perfect on PATs and FGs. Keeping those kickoffs deep will be very important
again as Washington boasts another big time return threat in WR John Ross.
§ Darragh
O’Neill had one shank but otherwise was also stellar and kept the ball out of
Ishmael Adams’ hands. He continues to
average close to 45 yards a punt, with half of them ending up downed inside the
20.
§ The
CU return game is still mediocre at best. Shay Fields has taken over punts,
although Nelson Spruce had to come and field a couple after Fields bobbled one.
Philip Lindsay has some spark on kickoffs and it appears he is on the cusp of
breaking one, but he needs that one good block small crease, and this would be
a fabulous week to find it.
§ Overall, this is another game the Buffs can win, but they have to
come out of the gate awake and ready to play, even if is at an ungodly hour for
college football. This will be a dog
fight (pun intended) but I am going say Colorado does dig deep, limits
turnovers while getting a couple themselves, make a couple of big plays, and
finds a way to win it late, CU 34 UW 30.
§ If
you have time for anything else:
