We are
going to make this one short and sweet (well, not really that sweet for us Buff
fans) and to the point: Oregon is
favored by 33 points (not a typo) and with good reason. The Ducks are playing their best football of
the year, there are a ton of injuries for the Buffs (especially in the
defensive secondary) and blowouts have been the norm in this matchup since CU
joined the conference. The question is
not so much “Will Oregon cover?” but “Will there be any reason to stay tuned in
or even switch back once the CU-Wyoming basketball game tips off an hour after
kickoff?” The only thing the Buffs
really have going for them is that this is the Pac12 and the only crazy thing
that hasn’t happened this year is CU getting a win over a conference foe.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ The
offense will need to be at its absolute best to keep the Buffaloes anywhere close
in this game. There is no room for
error.
§ It
appears that Sefo is on track to play, but has not been officially cleared. However, his penchant for turning the ball
over has probably opened the door for backup Jordan Gerhke to get a look, and
everyone, well, except head coach Mike MacIntyre, has said that Gehrke will get
some snaps in the final two games. How
much we see of will depend on a lot of things, but his running ability might be
one way to keep the Ducks D off balance. However, if Sefo is banged up still,
they might be hesitant to run Gehrke much, since the next option at QB is
walk-on frosh Ty Gangi (as they do not want to waste Cade Apsay’s redshirt).
§ Nelson
Spruce will need a strong game, but so will the other receivers and they need
to find a way to make some plays downfield.
§ They
should probably introduce a new wrinkle on the reverse game they have been utilizing
the last few games.
§ Unfortunately,
RB Michael Adkins sprained his ankle and is probably not 100% and when he has
been less than that he has not looked good.
Brian Lindgren has yet to figure out how to rotate his RBs and so no one
has been all that effective. Tony Jones,
Christian Powell (I think they might be limiting his touches now because of his
concussion history) and Phillip Lindsay will all get touches, all will have a couple
of nice plays, but expect a lot of zero or one yard gains or losses, and
probably a couple of drops on screens.
When the Ducks have the ball:
§ The
Ducks offensive strength against the Buffs defensive, certainly their weakest
unit again this year. Heisman hopeful Marcus
Mariota versus the depleted CU secondary.
Speed against…not so fast. I
think you have to say the Oregon owns the advantage at every position group and
matchup.
§ Mariota
is hoping to pad his stats and chances at the Heisman by destroying the Buffs yet
again (seven total TDs last year) and there is little reason to think he won’t
do so. He has 29 passing TDs to only 2
interceptions, and he is most dangerous when a play breaks down and he has to
run, picking up a lot of third down conversion with his feet, a situation the
Buffs have not been able to defend that well against much lesser QBs.
§ The
Ducks are a super talented, sprinter-fast team going against a defense that has
given up piles of yards and points. True
frosh RB Royce Freeman gets overlooked but he is a beast and has over taken both
Byron Marshall (since moved to the slot) and Thomas Tyner (last year’s freshman
sensation), both of whom would start for many schools. They just have tons of speedy weapons and
even though they lost star TE Pharaoh Brown, they will have too many options
for this defense to stop.
§ The
OU o-line has endured some injuries and will be down at least their center this
week, but as long as Jake Fischer is at one of the tackles, there are a stellar
time that opens holes and gives Mariota time to make plays.
§ Even
when the Buffs have played well on defense they are unable to sustain it and
will eventually give up a series of big plays.
§ To
compound matters, CU will be playing at least two former walk-ons at safety, a
position that was once considered the deepest group at the beginning of the
season; but then Jered Bell blew out his knee in camp, numerous injuries forced
many young players in to action early and we saw a lot of combinations in the
secondary, then Marques Mosely went down with another knee, Tedric Thompson
took a huge hit against UCLA and has not played since (still questionable),
Chido Awuzie lacerated a kidney in practice and is done, and true frosh Evan
White is also questionable after a concussion.
That leaves Terrell Smith, who didn’t play when everyone was healthy
even though he is a senior, has battled injuries of his own, but he is the
number one option right now, and will likely play alongside walk-on Ryan
Moeller or former walk-on Richard Yates.
This is just bad. They might have to ask DD Goodson to pop back over to
defense and Jason Espinoza isn’t even here anymore.
§ If
a team wants to break the 100 point barrier, this would be the game for Oregon
to give it a shot.
Special Teams:
§ Oregon
is just way faster than CU here and Darragh O’Neill and Wil Oliver must keep
the ball away from the Duck returners or there will surely be a big return for
a TD. Nelson Spruce, Shay Fields, Phillip
Lindsay and anyone else who might receive a kick or punt must hold onto the
ball.
§ Overall, the Buffs are going to be outmatched in all facets of the
game. It will be a blow out, but Buffs “cover” 59-27. I only hope that this group gives me a
reason, any reason, to watch any of the second half instead of the
basketball. Who ever thought, especially
back in the dark days of Ricardo Patten, that we would look so forward to b-ball
season?!
§ If
you truly feel the need to subject yourself to more analysis of this game…
Stuart’s
TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2014/cu-at-no-2-oregon-a-preview/
Rumblin’
Preview: http://rumblinbuff.blogspot.com/
Ralphie
Report One Key Matchup: http://www.ralphiereport.com/buffaloes-ducks/2014/11/19/7246709/colorado-buffaloes-oregon-ducks-one-key-matchup
RR’s
Patrick Ghidossi’s 3 Keys to the game: http://www.ralphiereport.com/buffaloes-ducks/2014/11/21/7257853/colorado-buffaloes-vs-oregon-ducks-keys-to-the-game
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ore14/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
Oregon Game
Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/ore14/orenotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
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