CU-csu preview

I have been feeling pretty confident about this game, but the closer we get the more nervous I become.  There are many reasons to favor both sides, and with two defensive starters lost for the Buffs, this game is very close.  The rams may have had an 8-4 record last year, but realize it was in the Mountain WAC conference, and not a single win came against a team that ended the year with a winning record.  The team from up north needs to replace both lines almost in their entirety, and are down two of the possible replacements on the offensive side.  Both teams have been trying to increase their overall speed and size and both claim to be pleased with progress.  As is often the case, this game will likely be close and come down to play in the trenches where both teams are replacing a lot of guys.

§  Line: I have seen anywhere from “pick ‘em” to CU by 4 ½ leading up to the game, but it seems to have generally settled at CU by 3.

§  Depth Chart moves/Burn the Redshirt: Who will be the first redshirt burned this year?   There are nine true frosh listed on the depth chart and a bunch will play Friday night. Take a look at the opening kickoff as some are expected to at least play on special teams, including WRs Shay Fields, Lee Walker, and Donovan Lee and possibly even Jay MacIntyre, as well as S Evan White.   DEs Christian Shaver and Michael Mathewes will certainly see time, and at least one of DTs Eddy Lopez and Jase Franke.

§  Injuries: S Jered Bell and DE Tyler Henington have been lost for the season due to non-contact ACL tears.  DE Markeis Reed is out a couple of more weeks after hernia surgery. A couple of guys who don’t figure to get playing time are also out for this first game: C Brad Cotner (concussion) and DL Garrett Gregory.

§  The rams have lost a couple of offensive linemen; LB Cory James and TE Kivon Cartwright have been recovering from surgeries but are expected to play.

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  Look for the Buffs to run early and often, establishing the run and pounding on the lamb defensive line, which will be replacing all three starters, giving the o-line a chance to really create some holes for the three or four headed monster that looks to be the Buffs rushing attack.  Michael Adkins will likely start, Christian Powell will get reps at TB and FB, Tony Jones will come in for a few third downs. R-Fr. Phillip Lindsay will also be mixed in and I expect him to make some plays (predicting that he will have a long TD run).  Their jumbo goal-line package with FB George Frazier and Powell is going to be very effective.

§  The offensive line will be the expected (left to right) Jeromy Irwin-Kawai Crabb-Alex Kelley-Daniel Munyer-Stephane Nembot.  The right side will probably be their favorite direction to run, but Munyer is also excellent at pulling to the left.  They have better size and depth here than we have seen since Barnett’s tenure.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them play more guys here to develop that depth, especially if they can get a good lead.

§  When they do establish the run, it should really open up the game for QB Sefo Liufau and his deep stable of receivers.  Nelson Spruce and DD Goodson are both going to catch a ton of balls all over, while Shay Fields and Bryce Bobo will be used to stretch the field (Sefo worked hard on the long ball over the summer), with Tyler McCulloch featured in five wideout sets and the red zone for his height.  And they still have true frosh Walker, Lee and even little Jay MacIntyre.  R-Fr. Elijah Dunston looks like the odd man out, but could sneak into the rotation with Devin Ross announcing over Twitter that he is redshirting (it actually seems that he got leapfrogged by the younger guys, maybe has been placed with the scout team and isn’t expected to play much at this point, but Coach Troy Walters said a redshirt was not necessarily the case).

§  They will be up against a ram secondary that is similar to the Buffs, in that they have struggled the past few years but are bringing back a lot of guys who have played.  Their confidence is boosted by the fact that they don’t have to face Paul Richardson.  The Buffs went over the top of the safeties with P-Rich last year, but will likely employ more of a controlled shorter passing game.

§  Coaches have also said that they are encouraging Sefo to run more this year, both in making the choice when to tuck the ball and go, as well as some designed plays (at least once in the Aug. 16 scrimmage, they called a keeper for Sefo on first down).  Not only is Sefo more experienced at reading defenses and making decisions, but he has put on some weight and worked on his quickness to make him a better runner able to take hits.  Additionally, coaches feel much more comfortable this year with Jordan Gehke’s development as the backup, if something were to happen to Sefo, whereas last year that was not the case.

§  Unfortunately, I don’t think the TEs will contribute much to the passing game, but this position could be lethal in this offense with the other talent at RB and WR.  However, Sean Irwin and Kyle Slavin are both strong blockers.  If someone starts catching some balls, it will likely be Irwin.

When the lambikins have the ball:

§  Addison Gilliam will lead the Buff D, which will line up in the nickel more often than not.  Soph. Ken Olugbode will flank him and Woodson Greer will come on for running teams and situations, and I am not sure that we will see much of the other LBs.  But the key here is going to be the defensive line rotation, especially the ends who cannot even boast of one upperclassman. The interior is anchored by Srs. Josh Tupou and Juda Parker, with Jr. Justin Solis, and some depth coming from scrappy Jr. Clay Norgard, versatile So. De’Jon Wilson (will also line up outside) and likely true frosh Eddy Lopez and/or his classmate Jase Franke.  The youthful corps of rush ends will begin with R-Fr. Derek McCartney and So. Jimmy Gilbert, followed by R-Fr. Tim Coleman (Markeis Reed won’t play this week), plus true frosh Christian Shaver and Micheal Mathewes.  This group has to slow down the run game and get some pressure on the QB, or it could be a long day.

§  Garret Grayson is an experienced QB and was invited along with Sefo to the Manning Passing Academy this summer, but you did not hear his name much.  He has a couple of decent receivers in Joe Hansley and Rashard Higgins, and, as they usually do in fort collins, a capable TE or two, although no standouts.  Grayson will spread the ball around and will definitely take some deep shots, especially with Jered Bell out, but I expect this much improved secondary to be up to the task and come away with a couple of interceptions.

§  His offensive line will also have four new starters trying to protect him and create holes for whichever RB tries to replace their top three rushers, none of whom are with the team: Chris Nwoke graduated, Donnell Alexander transferred (smart move my man!) and Kapri Bibbs inexplicably (well, I guess he is a ram) bolted after only his sophomore season for the NFL to become an undrafted free agent clawing to make a practice squad with Denver.  It look like the lambs will also have a running back by committee approach, but they are not nearly as deep as the Buffs. Converted safety Jason Oden will start but expect to see a lot ‘Bama transfer Dee Hart off the bench.  If the line and Gillam can plug up the run game and force Grayson to be one dimensional, it will help everyone.

§  The CU defensive secondary is as deep as it has been in years and coaches have already said they will rotate more players here to keep the players fresh against the quick snaps and waves of receivers some of these spread offenses in the Pac12 send out there.  However, the injury to Bell leaves a hole in experience and leadership.  So. Chido Awuzie, who coaches want on the field as much as possible, is going to take over that free safety spot opposite Tedric Thompson, with Sr. Terrel Smith coming on there in the oft-used nickel package.  Marques Mosley will also play and I expect we also see a decent amount of true frosh Evan White.  Henderson and Crawley will start at the corners, but we should also see some of Witherspoon, Yuri Wright and So. John Walker, who is listed as the #2 nickel.  Expect a couple of big plays by this group, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they gave up a few as well in their first game without Bell.

Special Teams:

§   This is an area that the Buffs should dominate with superior talent and speed as their coverage units (csu killed them here last year) should be way better this season.  Wil Oliver will be the kicker and is still listed as #1 KO (as well as #2 punter), but I really hope we get to see the booming leg of Diego Gonzalez.  Darragh O’Neill looks very strong and I expect a big year from him-he was hyped a lot coming into last year, but some struggles with the rugby style kick dropped his stats and no one is talking about him now.  The Buffs do have a new long snapper in Tucker Smith, and it sounds like he has done very well in camp (mostly because we haven’t heard any concerns).

§  Nelson Spruce will start out returning punts, with Greg Henderson, who had a couple of nice returns in scrimmages, backing him up.  Phillip Lindsay will line up deep for kickoffs with Ryan Severson, with Christian Powell and Tony Jones the other options.

§  Four players were officially listed on the depth chart as “Select Unit Specialists (coverage and return)”: So. RB Terrence Crowder, So. Transfer S/LB Travis Talianko, and Sr. former walk-ons safety Richard Yates and WR Wes Christensen (the two were awarded scholarships for their last season on Tuesday).

§  Overall, the Buffs have just a little more talent, size and speed across the board, but the trenches will be where the game is won, with the offensive line paving the way for  the running backs to run out the clock in the 4^th quarter, Buffs 31 lambs 17.

§  If  you need a little more to make it to Friday’s kickoff:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2014/colorado-state-preview-3/

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu14/cunotes.pdf

csu game notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/csu14/csunotes.pdf