The
Buffs lost a heartbreaker last weekend when the offense once again could not
punch it in at the goal line during overtime and Cal’s kicker chipped in the
game winner after Wil Oliver had missed THREE makeable FGs earlier in the
game. The team has generally played
better in many respects each game, especially on offense, but the defense, and
specifically the defensive line, has not been able to keep the other team from
scoring more. It is certainly
encouraging that Colorado is keeping themselves in the game, but if they don’t
get this one, the schedule gets really tough after the bye with Oregon (will be
pissed after a loss now), USC (always kills us) and UCLA (won’t take us lightly
after last year). OSU is coming off a
terrible performance, especially their second half and especially QB Sean
Mannion. I don’t expect OSU to play that
badly two games in a row and Mannion will likely come out firing so the Buffs
have to shake off the OT loss to Cal and man up. Both teams have been sloppy and are among the
nation’s worst at accumulating penalties and the Pac12 refs have been on fire
lately so expect a lot of yellow and some “interesting” calls. Whosever defense, and more specifically,
whose defensive line, can limit the other team’s offensive output, will have the
leg up in this probable shootout.
§ Line: OSU opened as 6.5-7.5 favorites
and that has crept up a little further at some books.
§ Depth Chart moves/Burn the Redshirt: Unless there are injuries, we are likely done
with burning redshirts this season.
However, the five who have played will see their roles increase as the
season goes on-WR Shay Fields, RB/WR scatback Donovan Lee, S Evan White, DE
Christian Shaver and DT Eddy Lopez.
§ Injuries: S Tedric Thompson should be
back after leaving the game and the Buff defense defenseless with a bruised
sternum.
§ DE
Markeis Reed is back practicing but probably won’t see the field until after
the bye week.
§ R-Fr.
WR Elijah Dunston tore his ACL in practice and is out for the year. He hadn’t played at all on offense, but this
does leave Jay MacIntyre as the next man up if there are any more injuries here
(although So. Devin Ross, who is slated to redshirt, could also be called
upon).
§ OSU
is has suffered numerous injuries of late, including to three defensive tackles,
although they are getting one back; WR Victor Bolden is questionable and was to
test his dislocated finger catching the ball Thursday; speedy WR Rahmel Dockery,
S Ty Zimmerman and LB DJ Alexander are all expected to return; offensive
lineman Isaac Seumalo is still out.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ The
CU offense has become a national headline and the most prolific version we may
have ever seen here. Sefo is confident,
beginning to limit his mistakes and has wide variety of weapons to utilize;
even though he hit Nelson Spruce 19 times last week, he also completed passes
to 11 other receivers. Tyler McCulloch
has been the biggest surprise to me as big possession guy, almost a TE. (This offense will only get better as the
year goes on and next season they really only lose 5 seniors who play and all
have capable replacements waiting in the wings.)
§ However,
Oregon St. has quietly become a strong defense, currently ranked 16th
in the country. They supposed play very
solid fundamental football, rarely has anyone caught out of position, and
although there are no national superstar types, they just make plays. They are led by Sambacker Michael Doctor and
Sefo will need to account for him every single play. Obum Gwacham is their main pass rusher and
will likely go after Nembot and Irwin.
§ CB
Steven Nelson will likely be given the task of slowing Spruce, who is very hard
to double cover, both because of the WR depth and his outstanding hands. The
entire starting secondary are upperclassmen so they are experienced.
§ After
a couple of DT injuries (OSU claiming some borderline dirty USC blocks) the
Trojans were able to grind away at the Beaver defense and the Buffs will hope
to do the same. This could be especially
important late in the game with the altitude and defensive guys wearing down.
§ The
running back by committee approach has not fared that well and although there
has been a smattering of success at times, Lindgren has not been able to keep
the hot hand going and has never gotten Michael Adkins started. Tony Jones was the man last week and I would
expect him to get the first and most touches again, but we should see all four
guys. I am still waiting for Phillip
Lindsay’s breakout on offense and it needs to come soon. It would be nice if this group could play
well and control the game against the depleted Beaver d-line and keep Mannion
off the field some.
§ The
offensive line may be improving, but they are not creating big holes for the
RBs, Sefo is still taking way too many hits and the goal line and short yardage
percentages have been awful, leaving a ton of points on the field after failed
3rd and 4th and ones. A lot of that is on the play calling
in those situations as MacIntyre and Lindgren should have realized that they
can’t just pound it in with this line.
§ However,
the play calling in other situations has been more creative lately and I would
expect to see a couple more wrinkles rolled out this week. Can Shay Fields or Donovan Lee throw the
ball?
§ FB/TE/DE
George Frazier has become a very nice little weapon, with three TDs in the last
two games, plus a handful of tackles on defense. TE Sean Irwin is also finally getting into
the act, and even Kyle Slavin caught a ball near the goal line.
When the Beavers have the ball:
§ QB
Mannion is a very dangerous and tore apart the Buffs last year, but he has
proved to be much less so this year without an All-American receiver to look to
at crucial moments and his and the team’s production is way down (much to the
chagrin of my fantasy team). Richard
Mullaney is the main target and the best deep weapons Bolden and Dockery have
been banged up. They also have a few young
weapons that could be dangerous. The trio of big, capable TEs have had only limited
success this year but were huge last year.
§ USC
all but shut them down in the second half last week and I am sure the DC Kent
Baer has dissected that film. The fact
of the matter is, though, that the Buffs simply do not have the size, strength,
speed or general talent that the Trojans presented, especially on the defensive
line. However, if they do find some
creative ways to get some pressure on Mannion, he has always been prone to
interceptions.
§ Just
having Tedric Thompson back should boost the defense as they were not the same
without him, leading 21-7 when he went out and being outscored 52-35 the rest
of the way. Could Thompson make it four games in a row with a pick?
§ The
rest of the secondary has been playing great from Chido to Crawley (has been
limiting his bonehead misakes) to nickel John Walker. Teams have not been afraid to go Greg
Henderson because of the group’s strength and he might have actually been the
weakest link giving up two TDs. Evan
White is showing at times why they were so high on him, but also that he is
still a freshman (I could see him forcing Jered Bell back to corner and nickel
next season. Marques Mosley was very
pedestrian in his time out there. We
have still hardly seen any signs of Terrell Smith, Akhello Witherspoon or Yuri
Wright.
§ Derek
McCartney is starting to come into his own and is probably the best player on
the d-line. They are still young and not that big or strong, but they are
becoming less of a liability. Clay
Norgard has become quite a pest in passing situations and has gotten some
pressure on QBs, including a sack.
Otherwise, there is not a lot to write about with others only
occasionally making any notable positive plays.
§ Storm
Woods and Terron Ward present a challenge at RB and the CU defense has let
everyone run on them. These two could
have a big day if they don’t get slowed early in the game. They got away from the run game after early
success last week, but I would expect to see an emphasis on it against us.
§ LB
Addsion Gillam has never quite looked himself after battling an illness early
in camp and losing a bunch of weight (reported as 7 pounds but I think it was
more). He has been good but not great,
without the same closing speed and tenacity to get to the ball and finish the
tackle. Ken Olugbode was had some
incredible plays, both ways, including having both arms wrapped around Daniel
Lasco, before he slipped out and sprinted 70+ yards more for the TD. Woodson Greer has played sparingly against
mostly passing teams, while Brady Daigh and Ryan Severson have been fine as
replacements at times but not a whole lot more. Linebacker play was supposed to
be a strength of this team, but so far has been mediocre overall, and frankly
needs to be much better for this team to make it over the hump.
Special Teams:
§ This group took a big, but hopefully
temporary, step backwards last week as Wil Oliver couldn’t hit the broad side
of a barn missing three not very long FGs, nor kick the ball out of the
endzone, allowing some pretty good field position to Cal after the many scores. Even Darragh O’Neill had his worst day of the
year, shanking two punts in the crucial 3rd quarter.
§ I
will keep writing it so that I will look smart when he does: Phillip Lindsay is
due for a kickoff TD if someone can just make that one big block that opens the
hole. However, OSU has also shown the
ability for some big returns with a 97-yards TD last week.
§ Overall, it’s hard to see this being anything other than another
shootout, but one that the Buffs are capable of winning. It will be awful and my heart and stomach,
but Sefo goes off again and eventually outduels Mannion 48-45 in regulation.
§ If
you need some more:
Ralphie
Report Preview: http://www.ralphiereport.com/colorado-buffaloes-oregon-state-beavers/2014/10/2/6886193/buffaloes-vs-beavers-the-preview
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/osu14/cunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
Oregon
St. Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/osu14/osunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600
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