It is
finally gameday, entering week 5 of the 2013 college football season and the
Colorado Buffaloes are undefeated as they enter conference
play. The team has had a long layoff after the flooding postponement, and
followed by a bye, to prepare for their first road trip of the year in
Corvallis. However, the state of Oregon is weird and school is just starting
there and newly arrived students should make it a rowdy atmosphere. The Buffs
are heading into their first ever trip to Reser Stadium (first two at OSU games
were in Portland) with a business-like approach and they are itching to hit
someone else after 20 days off. They
feel that they have worked on the little things they saw in game film of
themselves, and have been able to meticulously prepare for OSU. The only worry is how rusty some of the
players might be and how quickly everyone re-adjusts to real game speed.
§ Conventional
thought had this game as a high-scoring offensive showcase, however the
forecast may change that. The weather is
expected to be rainy and windy all weekend, with heavy downpours at times and
guts of wind up to 50 MPH. Both teams’
strengths have been throwing the ball, so the run game suddenly becomes much
bigger, which should actually be an advantage for the Buffs.
§ I
love this attitude from MacIntyre talking about their approach to “plane trips”
(not road trips): “We have four goals for our team, that are ours personally,
and I won’t share with you here. But we started attacking it Monday as a team.
I think the primary aspect is that they have to go in with a mindset that it’s
not a trip, it’s a business trip. You are going there with one thing in mind,
and one thing only, win the football game. We have to understand that. We can
enjoy all of the stuff, and take it all in, but you have to have the mindset
and the perspective that you are going there to win a football game. It’s
something we talk about quite often, we do have a formula that we follow. The
way we travel, the things we do, how we meet, all work towards that… It’s the
mindset of your kids, the mindset of our coaches. Our coaches, we always take
the mindset that we’re not going to get ruffled, we’re not going to get upset
about being (stuck) somewhere. We’re not going to get upset if the food’s cold.
We’re just going to stay focused on the main thing at hand, and hopefully we
set the tempo of that as coaches. This is the first time for these young men to
travel with us, and we’ve talked about every scenario already with the team,
and we’re going to prepare them, and get them to realize that the main goal is
to win the football game.”
§ An
interesting Colorado-Oregon connection this weekend is that in some circles
Missy Frankin’s visit to Corvallis with the Cal swim team is bigger news than
the football game.
§ Line: It opened at 10 points and quickly
went to 10.5 and has gone as high as 12, with Oregon St. obviously considered
the favorite at home. The over/under is 64, and I would have taken the over earlier
in the week without hesitation, but now that would be a closer decision,
probably still going with the over-my prediction (see below) is right at that
number (coincidental).
§ Sledgehammer: Daniel Munyer should be a
little stronger, but might be a little tired of carrying around the
sledgehammer for three weeks now.
§ Depth Chart moves: RB Terrence Crowder,
who was recently arrested, has been temporarily dismissed from the team. I guess that is worse than suspended, but
leaves open an option to reinstate (somewhat like Everett Golson at notre
lame). I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there were an unexpected name out
there somewhere.
§ Burn the Redshirt: Coaches say that Michael
Adkins (19) will get his first action this week (it was not actually him late against UCA as I thought, but Donta Abron
(18) with his jersey tucked awkwardly in hip pads). I am really excited to see
Adkins play, although I don’t think Tony Jones feels the same way.
§ WR
Devin Ross came in and caught a pass on his first and only play against UCA and
I am excited to see more of him. He plays in the slot behind Goodson, but might
be faster and quicker. He will be a real
threat when he has learned more of the offense and the coaches trust him-maybe
today after a couple of weeks to prepare.
§ The
team has listed six freshmen as designated to redshirt (WR J. Thomas, FB/LB
George Frazier, o-linemen Kough and Kronshrage, DEs McCartney and Reid), according
to the most recent depth chart. Any
true other frosh not listed will likely redshirt as well, including TE Connor
Center, who needs to learn “football”, and RB Phillip Lindsay, who is recovering
from a major knee injury. There may not
be many more true frosh used this season, and Adkins might be the last viable
candidate.
§ Injuries: No new injuries were reported
(although there are always a couple of unexpected guys in pads each week) and
most Buffs should be healed up from any bumps and bruises, most importantly RB
Christian Powell, who should be close to 100% with his thigh bruise.
§ Ford,
Irwin and J. Webb are all still 2-3 weeks away from being able to play.
§ The
Beaver roster is littered with various injuries, enough that Riley might not be
able to fill a 70 man travel squad if they were going on the road.
§ The
biggest question for OSU is if their best running back Storm Woods would be ready
to go from his concussion and it is looking like he will not play.
§ Specifically,
the offensive line has also been hit hard; they have started a different group almost
every week and are still down two starters.
§ Senior
CB Sean Martin will be limited by a shoulder injury.
When the Buffs have the ball:
§ The
Oregon St. defense has given up a lot of yards and points this season and the
Colorado offense has had some extra time to study four games of film (while the
Beavs will only have 2 games worth) to look for some places to target. The Buffs should have been able to install a
double-large chunk of their offense and therefore should be able to throw some
wrinkles at the defense. They will need
to dig deep into the gameplan for some plays to help them run in the mud.
§ P-Rich
will require the attention of every team, coach, defensive player, analyst, fan
and referee. They will continue to move
him around, try to confuse defenses and give him multiple ways to apply his
talents and the extra time is plus for the Buffs here. San Diego St. exploited the Beaver secondary
with some speed and they should be vulnerable again. I always said P-Rich would
have been worth two victories himself last year and I believe we have seen
those two wins this year, so does he have enough to keep it going? Can others-Spruce, Goodson, McCulloch, true
frosh Ross-take advantage and take some heat off him? Or will the rain and mud
nullify and advantage the receivers have?
§ Beaver
safety Tyrequek Zimmerman is all over the field and averages over 8 tackles a
game. I’ve got to think he is going to give a lot of help to corners Steven
Nelson (four interceptions, two pick sixes) and Rashaad Reynolds try to contain
P-Rich, which could open the door for those others. I’d actually like the offense to take a deep
shot early to someone besides P-Rich.
§ Where
were the TEs against UCA? Slavin and Fernandez
were very quiet last game after turning in key catches in the opener. They need at least a little production here
and should benefit from a deep wide receiver unit and attention to P-Rich. The
short passing game will become more important with the weather factors and they
could contribute there.
§ The
Beaver linebackers have struggled and all three positions have already turned
over so they are playing some young, less experienced guys that Connor Wood should
be able to take advantage of.
§ If
teams are truly concerned with P-Rich, there should be more there for the RBs,
who are only averaging 2.7 yards per carry. The team worked a lot on their run
game during the extended break and we should see at least a little improvement,
although the competition will be bigger, faster and better than anything they
have seen. They will be featured if the
weather comes as predicted. It would also be nice to eat some clock and keep
Mannion on the sidelines.
§ No
RB has broken a long run yet, with WR
DD Goodson’s 31-yard end around the longest run so far (QB Wood has the 2nd longest at 19 yards). Powell needs to be 100% to be effective (is
he cut out to carry the ball for four quarters?) and I am still just not sold
on Tony Jones. Michael Adkins will get
his chance this weekend.
§ Abron’s
play, including pass blocking down the stretch, has intrigued me so far and I
would like to see him get some more action, but it sounds like he may be the
odd man out now. Powell might actually
be best suited for change of pace big guy. We have yet to see Malcolm Creer,
who should be completely healthy.
§ The
Beavers have two talented Des who have combined for 4 sacks and 9,5 TFLs, Dylan
Wynn and Scott Crichton, who will challenge Harris and especially Nembot at the
tackles. The RB snaps could well depend
on who is best picking up the blocks and is able to catch and run with the dump
pass, which first points to Jones.
§ Here
are the offensive line grades for the first two weeks of the season. Kaiwi
Crabb 72.9%, Gus Handler 72.9%, Jack Harris 82.3%, Daniel Munyer 72.9%,
Stephane Nembot 67.1%, (and Alex Kelley 100.0% in one play vs. csu), TEAM
73.7%; last year Handler had a season grade average of 83.5%; Jack Harris was
84.3%; Daniel Munyer was 83.2%; and Stephane Nembot was 74.6%-which likely
means they are being evaluated a little stricter this year, but definitely
shows they have some work to do. Besides
the one play for Kelley, the unit has all played together for every play this
season and hopefully is getting more in sync with each other.
§ This
group will go a long way in how successful the offense will be, and need to
play a little better each week.
When the Beavers have the ball:
§ The
Beavers are the number one passing team in the country. Sean Mannion, who once
again barely beat out Cody Vaz for the starting QB position, has been throwing
the ball over the place since, averaging about 400 yards a game. He is very
accurate and will make a lot of quick throws to various receivers with hooks,
slants and they are very good with the bubble screen, and of course they can go
deep too.
§ Brandin
Cooks is one of the top receivers in the conference and country, right
alongside P-Rich; Cooks turned in a show-stopping, game-winning P-Rich-topping
9 catch 210 yard 3 TD performance vs Utah, then followed that up with another
solid game vs. SDSU. However, if you focus too much on Cooks, Mannion has other
receivers like Richard Mullaney, who had a huge game vs. San Diego St..
§ They
also have a talented TE corps led by Cody Hamslett. Last week they ran a play with Caleb Smith
acting as the decoy on a flat pass to the left while Kellen Klute came from the
right side across the back of the endzone almost wide open. Look for them to do the opposite this week,
with Smith being the recipient and Klute the decoy, unless coaches Clark and
LaRussa can also sniff this idea out and prepare the DBs.
§ They
should be a little more used to playing in the rain, but it is supposed to be
pretty bad, which definitely gives a small advantage to the Buff defense.
§ As
strong their passing game has been so far, the Beavers rank only 121st in the nation rushing the ball. Storm Woods usually leads the rushing attack
but missed last week’s game with a concussion will likely miss this one as well. His backup Terron Ward has shown some flashes
and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Jovan Stevenson and true frosh
Chris Brown could try pick up the slack. The Buffs must be ready for draws and misdirection
plays.
§ The
defense must also be very aware of screen passes, which are essentially their
best “running” plays, and they run all kinds to WRs, TEs and RBs. A lot of practice and film study went into
recognizing the screens so they don’t get fooled for a big play.
§ Granted,
the Beavers have not really played any quality teams, with Utah being their
biggest challenge, but this offense is going to put points up on everyone, even
in the rain, and the entire Colorado defense has their work cut out for them,
especially the DBs. They will need to keep everything in front of them and tackle
well to eliminate the big plays. This is especially true early in the game that
they don’t get beat deep due to their rustiness. They will probably throw quite
a few different looks at the Beavers (and vice versa).
§ This
could be the week that true frosh Chidobe Awuzie (5th on the team in
tackles) gets his first start as the Buffs should be in nickel and dime for
most of the game. I picked him up as my IDP in fantasy. S Marques Mosley should
also get his most extensive playing time this year as the dime (sixth DB).
§ I
must say I have been pleasantly surprised but very impressed with the play of S
Jered Bell, even before the pick six.
Having re-watched both games, he has not really been out of position, is
a solid tackler, and seems to have regained his speed (faster than I originally
thought) and just makes plays. MacIntyre also has pointed out his play.
§ The
Beaver offensive line has had to shuffle a lot and has had their problems, not
just with the run game, but also with a lot of penalties, including 5 maddening
false starts in the last game. It looks
like although they will not get any injured players back, they will be using
the same five for consecutive weeks which should help their rhythm and
cohesiveness somewhat.
§ It
will be important for the front six/seven of Colorado to have their best game,
get some pressure on Mannion (and off the secondary) and keep the run game to a
minimum. The group has gotten some
pressure on QBs but not a lot of sacks.
Even in the rain they are going to face at least 30 passes this game
(OSU averaging over 40 passes a game), so they will have a lot of chances to
make some plays.
§ On
the d-line Jim Jeffcoat have been playing a 10-man rotation (11 if you count
De’Jon Wilson’s two snaps) to keep everyone fresh. Chidera, Tupou and Bonsu lead the line in
number of defensive snaps, but next is true frosh Jimmie Gilbert, playing more
than the more experienced ends Juda Parker and Kirk Poston; Justin Solis backs up
one DT, with Samson Kafovalu listed co-number 2 with Tyler Henington at the
other slot; Lowell Williams (45) is not listed in the 3-deep at LB or DE, but
has played in both the first two games.
§ When
Oregon St. gets into the redzone, they know how to close, seriously, scoring on
22-22 red zone opportunities this season and have converted (at least a FG) on 54 straight dating back to last year.
§ Colorado’s
defense has allowed less than 25% 3rd down conversions, but that
will be much tougher against this offense.
Even keeping that number from doubling would be a success.
§ Oregon
St. also has a penchant for going for it on 4th down.
Special Teams:
§ After three weeks off and a lot of practice
Toby Neinas and the special teams coverage units had better have gotten their
shit together with the long layoff to practice and study film. Neinas says he would be very surprised if
they are not vastly improved. I hope
they do not have to kickoff straight out of bounds (although the 35 may be
preferable), nor only have the best punter in the country directionally rugby
punt, but that just may be the reality for the rest of this season. The full-time, well-compensated Neinas and
the coverage issues are definitely the biggest disappointment of the new regime
as it is probably the only area that the team is actually worse off this year
than last.
§ One
bright spot in this area has been true frosh S Tedric Thompson, who took his
brother Cedric’s (U of Minnesota) advice and worked hard on special teams with
the intention of gaining playing time right away. It has worked well as he is a starter on
three of the four main units (kickoff, kickoff return, and punt return, 2nd
team punt) and leads team in special teams points through two games with
six. Unfortunately, I believe K Wil
Oliver and long snapper Ryan Iverson are also high on that list.
§ Let’s
hope we win the coin toss and can elect to take the ball, so we don’t have to
open the game with our worst unit, with some new people playing, trying to
cover their first live kickoff in 20 days, against the fastest competition
we’ve seen yet, who has been game-planning specifically for that weakness.
§ Against
Fresno St. it appeared Ryan Severson had taken over kickoff returns, but Mosley
is still listed first; however, after three weeks, who knows what they have
going on.
§ One
small item of possible note: OSU will be breaking in two different long
snappers as their regular guy tore his ACL last week-let’s see if Toby and the
boys can take advantage of some inexperience there.
Overall,
§ It
is hard to pick the Buffs here, even though OSU lost its opener to Eastern
Washington, as the Beavers are a really potent offense, and they have shown a
lot of resiliency and perseverance, with two of their three of their wins
coming as fourth quarter comebacks. But
so have the Buffs been tough in the fourth, outscoring csuca 39-10 in the last
period. I was going to predict a shootout
in the Fresno St. game and I will here as well, although the rain may temper
the totals a little. This game will
still probably come down to who has the ball last, or who makes the last stop.
Colorado
34 Oregon St. 31 on a last second Wil Oliver field goal.
§ If
you want a little more before kickoff:
Stuart’s
TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2013/oregon-state-preview/
Plati’s
CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/osu13/cunotes.pdf
Oregon
St. Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/osu13/osunotes.pdf
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