Arizona State Sun Devil desert preview

The Buffs travel to the heat of the desert, where they have had little success.  The team and fanbase both remain upbeat after sticking with Oregon longer than anyone else and only losing by 41 points. We’ve got until 8:00 PM (Pac12 Networks), so watch Oklahoma trounce Texas in the early game and then Oregon-Washington game at 2PM, try to get in a nap somewhere, and memorize ASU jersey numbers so you can ridicule the announcers who get confused easily.

§  Line: ASU opened at -24 and the betting has gone in their favor and is up to 26 ½  points.  Hard to argue from Vegas’s point of view, but that is a number the Buffs can use as motivation.  However, the Buffs have not been good on the road for a long time, have never beaten ASU period, and have especially struggled in night games in the desert.

§  Uniform choices are all the rage and ASU is trying to compete with Oregon (did you see their “bowling ball” helmets last week vs. notre lame?) and will be going with an all-maroon look, while the Buffs will be sporting their cool black helmets.

§  Sledgehammer? Are they still giving this out?  I haven’t read anything.  Do they only award it when they win? Is Daniel Munyer still keeping it in his locker?

§  Burn the Redshirt: We might be done with the burn as only Sefo is really left, barring injuries, and even he may be off that board now.

§  Depth Chart moves: QB Jordan Webb is no longer listed on the injury report (he technically served his one game suspension last Saturday), and he appears to be the first backup now, saving Sefo’s redshirt year.

§  True frosh S Tedric Thompson’s speed earned him the starter’s job last week as he is much faster than either Bell or Orms. Likewise, Chido Awuzie started over Crawley (who still managed to flashback to 2012 and get beaten numerous times), and John Walker also got his most extensive work yet.  The three safeties will likely rotate and the three CBs will do the same at left CB opposite Henderson and the nickel position.  Not sure what has happened to Marques Mosley?  

§  Injuries: The only injury officially reported is DT Josh Tupou, who sprained an ankle against Oregon and is questionable.  Josh Ford and Jeromy Irwin are still out (every week is still says 2-3 weeks so I wonder when they will just try to redshirt one or both of them, especially Irwin, not sure Ford can).

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  Same old story here: Offensive line needs to block, Connor Wood needs to make good decisions, and Brian Lindgren has to find ways to get the ball into P-Rich’s hands.  They have done it against lesser competition, but not against Pac12 opponents.

§  DE Wil Sutton is one of the best players in the country, and although he has not wreaked much havoc this year as teams have keyed on him, Jaxon Hood will return from injury, which will make it harder to contain Sutton. LB Carl Bradford leads the team in tackles and runs the D.

§  Osahon Irabor is their best DB and should draw PRich frequently.  If Robert Nelson is lined up with Richardson, and it looks like one-on-one (and maybe even if there is safety help), Wood’s read will automatically go there. Otherwise, the other receivers, especially 6’5” Tyler McCulloch should be able to make some plays against Nelson.  Safeties Alden Darby, Demarious Randall (after a strong debut against notre lame)  and Villiami (haven’t seen that name since Buff DE Maumau) Moeakiola will provide support over the top.

§  Connor Wood has had his moments both good and bad, but he needs to make good decisions and not make and turnovers.  He needs to make the touch throws and not throw the terrible INTs for a start.

§  They need more production out of their receivers after P-Rich (31 catches) and Spruce (16) as Goodson, McCulloch, Canty and Ross only combine for 18 more.  Get Richardson more involved and it should help the others.  Get the others more involved and it should help P-Rich.  The talent is there at this position (although almost all of them are, including the fabulous #6, guilty of some terrible drops)  and they need to take advantage of it.  A lot of us are surprised that DD Goodson has not been more consistent; I think this is due more to Lindgren’s play-calling than how Goodson has performed. 

§  I’ve said it every week: The offense needs some TE support and so far, Slavin and Fernandez have not done much except block.  One possibility is Sean Irwin, who had his first career reception last week, and might work his way into the time-share rotation. (Therefore, I took a huge flyer on Irwin and am playing him this weekend.)  This is a huge area of need that has only been addressed with one recruit so far.

§  The ASU run defense has been pretty soft against the run, giving up over 180 yards per game, so look for Brian Lindgren to attack that and use some play action when they have some success.  If the Buffs can get some production on the ground, it will give the offense a boost and the defense some rest against another up-tempo team.

§   Against Oregon RB Christian Powell (right after Mark Johnson on the radio and everyone in my section complained about him dancing around), finally learned/remembered/decided to run downhill and was very effective, gaining a few yards after contact almost every carry.  Michael Adkins provided a nice complement off the bench.  I would like to see more of the formations that use both Powell and Adkins. Tony Jones only saw minor action and I wonder if his time has come and gone.  Not sure about Abron at this point.

§  Third down has been terrible for CU only converting 2 of their last 30, and 0-15 against Oregon.  They are also struggling to get into the endzone (1-9 TDs inside 20, although 7 FGs) once they get close.  This team has got to convert some of these key plays on offense.  This area goes on everyone: Lindgren can make better calls, Connor can be more efficient and the receivers can certainly still catch better.

§  BoulderDevil (buffwatch.blogspot.com) suggests that Jordan Webb, based on his general experience as well as Wood’s inefficiency, could take some 3^rd down snaps.  I, however, am certainly one in the “horrified” camp at this idea-remember that Webb was told by Charlie Weiss that he didn’t even want to give him a chance on a Kansas team equally awful to Embree’s Buffs.  Plus, if you look at the list of 3^rd downs listed, at least three were receiver drops.  Webb should only injury or blowout option, but I fear we will see him at some point.

§  MacIntyre said he doesn’t want to overuse trick plays; they have a handful and will use them if they think the situation is right. I would love to see a fleaflicker to say Devin Ross where P-Rich stays in to sell the block.

When the Sun Devils have the ball:

§  QB Taylor Kelly, who has thrown for over 300 yards in every game, also has many weapons and runs a fast spread offense. However, they are nowhere in the category of Oregon and the defense should have some confidence after the beginning of the last game and some more film room work.  That does not mean it will be easy-ASU will still score some points, but the Colorado defense now knows how to slow down an offense like this.

§  They run an up-tempo spread with a lot of zone read option, misdirection and tricky groupings and alignments. Basically, so does everyone left on the Colorado schedule, so Oregon was great to prepare because everyone else should be a little slower and each week they can get better against this style.

§  ASU coach Todd Graham has said that his team has to be aggressive, especially on 4^th down, so don’t get too excited if the Buffs make a big third down stop, but it is still less than 2 yards, or they have the ball near or past the fifty.

§  Kelly’s favorite target is WR Jaelen Strong, who makes a lot of clutch plays for first downs and has drawn numerous pass interference calls (I would put money on Crawley getting at least one if he has to cover Strong).  Kelly and Strong has great chemistry, especially on the long over the shoulder ball (this very well may be where Crawley gives up the PI or a TD).

§  Kelly also has targets in WRs Kevin Ozier and freshman Cameron Smith as well as a very talented TE in Chris Coyle, who will be a definite mismatch for the safeties and LBs.

§  The defensive line will, as always, be key to slowing down the opponent and if they can get a little pressure on Kelly, is will help everyone else behind them. I expect DC Kent Baer to give these guys some help with some new blitzes this week.

§  There seems to be a shakeup in the Buff secondary after some new players got on the field a lot more last week.  We’ll see if Awuzie and Thompson get the starts again, how they use those top seven DBs, and if they work Mosley in (or if he just rides the bench and transfers in the offseason).

§  Greg Henderson has become the team’s playmaker with four picks, a fumble recovery and two TDs.  However, I think this could be Awuzie’s breakout game.  Upon arrival in Arizona, he tweeted: “A little heat never affected a Nigerian”. Teams will look away from Henderson and to Crawley to pick on first, and then towards the true frosh, and he will thrive.

§  The Buffs will definitely have four true freshmen on the field together at times with Awuzie, Thompson, Gillam and Gilbert, and could possibly see all four start.  And we weren’t supposed to rely on too many frosh this year!

§  ASU is deep in RBs, and although they have not done too much damage on the ground, they are dangerous in the short passing game.  Marion Grice is a touchdown machine (13 this season and 19 over his last 8 games) and is especially adept at turning a short screen pass into a big gain (if you need a reminder, you can watch last year’s game film). They do not lose much when they go to DJ Foster or Deantre Lewis to give Grice a breather.

§  ASU will have to account for LB Addison Gillam, who will likely be tasked with trying to slow down Grice.  At some point, as teams do start to key on Gillam (12.2 tackles with a couple for loss each game), things will open up more for D. Webb and the defensive ends.

§  The Buffs are one of the leading defenses in the country (11^th with 6 per game) at producing “three and out” series and forcing punts (turnovers and 4^th down stops also count here).  They did it at the beginning of the Oregon game which was huge in sticking with the Ducks for a third of the game.  It will go a long way toward beating the Sun Devils if they can force another six of these series.

Special Teams:

§  Astoundingly, this area could actually be a strength for Buffs.  ASU’s return game is surprisingly weak as they only average 5.7 yards on punts and 21.9 on kickoffs (compared to 7.8 and 23.7 for CU) while Colorado’s has been steadily improving. The CU coverage teams had their best day so far against the best and fastest team they will face, not giving up any big returns and almost recovering an onsides and a bloop kickoff against Oregon. 

§  I should just have a permanent line about Darragh O’Neill being a stud all-America candidate.  This past week, he limited the best punt returner in the country, Bralon Addison, with high booming punts, pinning the Ducks inside the 20 FIVE times, including two nine-irons on the green inside the ten.  CU averages over ten yards more than ASU on net punting (when returns are subtracted).

§  Will Oliver was better, getting almost all of his long kicks deep into or out of the endzone, while making all of his point kicks.

§  A big play in this area could help decide this game and although that is always the case, I think it will definitely be a factor tonight.

§  Overall,

§  Again, it is really hard to argue with ASU being a huge favorite at home and it will be very tough for the Buffs to get a win.  I think they will keep it close into the second half, but the third quarter will be key as CU has been killed 52-6 this year (while “winning” the other three quarters 106-100) and the Sun Devils blew them away after halftime in Boulder last year.  As usual BoulderDevil is enthusiastic and positive, going as far as saying: “If we win in Tempe, there's a good chance the Buffs take 3 in a row.”  However, in the end, I just don’t think Colorado will be able to hang on, although they should cover.  ASU 38  CU 20

§  If  you need some more:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2013/arizona-state-preview/

Rumbin’ Buff Preview: http://rumblinbuff.blogspot.com/2013/10/2013-arizona-state-football-preview.html#more

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2013/arizona-state-preview/

Oregon Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/asu13/asunotes.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=600