Oregon Duck Preview of Doom

Oregon Ducks Preview

This will be by far the best team they have faced (recurring theme today) or will face, as Oregon is ranked #2 in the country and gains a few number one votes each week, even as Alabama keeps winning as well.  The game is not just expected, but assumed to be blowout, with the Buffs having no chance whatsoever.  Even Coach MacIntyre has pointed out repeatedly that if they get to halftime and are still in the game then they have done better than anyone else (Virginia was the closest only down 28-10). Hard to argue against the Ducks here, as they are just plain good and do not take any team lightly.  They are probably overall and at almost every position, the fastest team in the country.   For “Key Players” for Oregon, Jon Woods of RalphieReport wrote “Most everyone”.

Bill McCartney will be honored at halftime for his upcoming induction into the College Football Hall of Fame and supposedly more than 100 former players will be on hand, including probably many of the big names from the real Coach Mac era. If anyone cares, it is also family weekend.

§  Line: I predicted it would open at least at 27.5 and I was way too conservative as most sites have it at 38 or 38.5 which is almost tempting because Oregon could get bored early and with some garbage points, a score like 52-14 would be a “win” with the 38.5.  Okay, maybe not, seeing as their 55-14 win over Cal has been their smallest margin of victory so far.

§  Sledgehammer: Not even sure if they awarded one-I had said I didn't think anyone deserved it for the OSU game.  It goes to the Duck offense today.

§  Depth Chart moves: RB Michael Adkins needs to be touching the ball more and it is only a matter of time until he is the starter.  Same for CB Chidobe Awuzie on defense.  Will Alex Kelley claim a spot on the o-line or will Munyer return to MacIntyre’s good graces?  Unfortunately, the cupboard is still quite unstocked and there are not a lot of feasible options to make changes.

§  Burn the Redshirt: There are probably not many possibilities here until (and I think it is until not unless) Sefo has to go in, either because Connor is getting killed, or they just say screw it and let him have a shot, though probably not this week.
True frosh CB Chido Awuzie (nickel) and DE Jimmie Gilbert (ahead of Juda Parker) officially got the starts on defense last week!

§  Injuries: The Buffs continue to have one positive in that they are relatively healthy.

§  Star Duck RB and returner D’Anthony Thomas will miss at least this game with sprained ankle.

When the Buffs have the ball:

§  They might be able to move the ball a little, but this will be the best defense they have faced yet.  They are not as well-known as they should be and because of the offensive reputation they are often overlooked, but they do not give up many points, even in garbage time with backups in the game.  As expected they are also a very fast group and capable of creating turnovers and scoring themselves.

§  It should be a little easier for Wood to throw without so much wind and rain, plus he will be at home. However, Brian Lindgren’s play calling has got to be more creative and they have to get the ball to PRich.  Once that happens, then everyone else can get involved.  I would especially like to see more of speedster Devin Ross, who might be fast enough to play with the Ducks.

§  This offense could really use a talented TE or two (too bad Austin Ray was a complete bust and Vincent Hobbs didn't work out) but the group they have are mostly converted lineman and fullbacks suited better to blocking, rather than true pass-catching TEs. Kyle Slavin looks the part but has been a huge disappointment hi whole career. (They only have one TE committed-Dylan Keeney-so far, so there is not a lot of help on the way.)

§  However, Wood may not even have that much time as this defensive line is talented and we know about the shortcomings of the Buff offensive line.  I would expect Oregon to attack Stephane Nembot on passing downs, so the backs and TEs will have to help out a lot on the right.

§  RB Michael Adkins should get the start here, but regardless will get a lot of work.  MacIntyre said that he would get a similar amount of work as last week and that Christian Powell will play some fullback to get both on the field at the same time.  We will also continue to see their most experienced back Tony Jones, as well as sophomore Donta Abron. I think Adkins will end up with the most touches, even if he doesn’t garner the start yet, although MacIntyre said it was certainly a possibility.  Malcolm Creer continues to be the odd man out.

When the Ducks have the ball:

§  Obviously, this is the best offense they have faced or will meet.  They may be the most potent offense in the nation (although kudos to Baylor) and their lineup is friggin fast in every way, from tempo, to QB, to deep RBs, to numerous WRs and TEs.  Even their offensive lineman all run under 5 second 40s (okay, I am making that up).

§  Even without D’Anthony Thomas this offense will do what it pleases against the Colorado defense, which has neither the speed nor talent to even stay with most of the skill position players.  Byron Marshall is the next star Duck RB and true frosh Thomas Tyner has looked great in his limited action.  Josh Huff leads a deep and relatively unheralded, though-surprise surprise-wicked fast wide receiver corps.  Colt Lyerla was touted as one of the best TEs in the country, but might be second best on his team with true frosh Johnny Mundt. The offensive line will be the best the Buffs have faced yet, and I am not sure that Marcus Mariota will even know there are Buff defenders near him.

§  MacIntyre describes Oregon’s offense as running at “hyper speed” (not to mention the speedsters running it) and the defense will simplify pre-snap calls to make sure everyone, especially the secondary, is ready for the next play.  The drawback with this is that the corners will stick to left-right as will the safeties, meaning that Oregon will always know where each DB is going to be and can create the matchups it wants.

§  The CU defense might be able to keep Oregon from going completely off early, although history suggests otherwise (last two first quarters vs Oregon were 28 and 29 to zero), but there is no way the Buffs can maintain it for four quarters against this group.  I would be shocked if Oregon does not score 50 (which they have done in a school record 4 consecutive games), and would not be surprised to see them do it in the first half; they could easily reach 70 again if they so choose.

§  The defensive line has been less than impressive so far and will struggle to make plays here as well.  LB Addison Gillam (listed #9 impact freshmen in the country by cbsports) will add to his tackle total, as will all members of the secondary who will have a busy day chasing receivers, backs and Mariota.

Special Teams:

§  This will (again) be the best and fastest special teams units they will face, maybe the most dangerous in the country.  So, this could get ugly. WR Bralon Addison is leading the nation in punt returns, and even without Thomas returning kickoffs, the Ducks are probably the fastest team in the nation and have numerous guys who can do that job.  Darragh will be rugby punting most of the day and (un)fortunately there won’t be too many kickoffs.  I have no idea what Wil Oliver will do-maybe they will just go for an onsides kick every time?

§  Even though they somewhat patched up the coverage, the team is getting very little on returns themselves and teams are taking advantage of a scared group, one that struggles on all four return units.  Someone is bound to try an early onsides kick against the unit that bumbled squibs vs. OSU, so why not Oregon today?

§  Overall,

§  So, are you saying there’s a chance?... NO. This will be a blowout at Folsom, with the stands emptying early.  I am glad the team is talking confidently like they can win, but sorry boys.  MacIntyre never flat said the Buffs don’t have a chance, but he pointed out multiple times throughout the week all the things that teams have not been able to accomplish against Oregon so far this season, most specifically and frequently that no Duck opponent has really even been in the game after halftime.  

It’s only a tiny bit better than last year: Ducks 66 Buffs 17 .

§  If  you need some more before you head to the tailgate or while watching early games:

Stuart’s TIPS: http://www.cuatthegame.com/2013/preview-oregon-2/

Rumblin’ Buff Preview: http://rumblinbuff.blogspot.com/2013/10/2013-oregon-football-preview.html

Plati’s CU Game Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/uo13/cunotes.pdf

OregonGame Notes: http://www.cubuffs.com/fls/600/gameday/uo13/uonotes.pdf